Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 02 2023Valid 12Z Sun Jul 02 2023 – 12Z Tue Jul 04 2023
…Heavy rain with the risk of localized flash flooding and severe weather
stretching from the Northeast to the Ohio/Tennessee Valley today……Heat will be less intense across the South but will remain excessively
hot over California and the Desert Southwest……Much above normal temperatures for portions of the northern Plains and
upper Midwest ahead of rain/storm chances Monday into the 4th of July holiday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A low pressure wave developing along a frontal boundary across the central
portion of the country will set the weather pattern into faster motion
through the eastern half of the country. This will push the active
thunderstorms farther to the east across the Ohio Valley toward the
central Appalachians today, and into the Mid-Atlantic by tonight.
Meanwhile, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to
become more numerous and widespread over New England today as a warm front
lifts across the region. The best chance of seeing severe weather
together with heavy rain today appears to be over the Ohio
Valley/Tennessee where large hail and damaging winds are possible. The
upper-level trough associated with the developing low pressure wave is
gradually eroding the upper ridge responsible for the prolonged heat wave
that has been gripping the South. With the eroding ridge, afternoon heat
is expected to become less intense across the region for the rest of the
weekend and heading toward the 4th of July holiday. By Monday, much of
the Ohio Valley will have a chance to dry out behind a cold front as the
main low pressure center is forecast to move into the Northeast. The
associated showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the 4th of
July holiday when the low begins exiting into the Canadian Maritimes.Meanwhile, excessive heat will remain in place across California into the
Desert Southwest with perhaps slight improvement arriving on Independence
Day. Forecast highs will range from 110-115 for the deserts, 105-110
degrees for the central California valleys, and upper 90s to low 100s for
other lower-elevations of California outside of the immediate coast for
today and Monday. A few record-tying/breaking highs will be possible.
Also notable is a continued stretch of forecast near-record and
record-tying/breaking highs for Florida in the mid- to upper 90s which
looks to continue beyond the current forecast period.Across the northern Plains, a brief heat wave is forecast to spread from
west to east across the region ahead of a cold front. The cold front will
usher in much cooler air from Canada into the northern portion of the
country as we head toward the 4th of July holiday. Together with the cool
down will be rain and embedded thunderstorms that are forecast to expand
westward into the northern High Plains and the foothills of the northern
Rockies by early on Independence Day behind the cold front. The
thunderstorms will also expand eastward across the northern Plains toward
the upper Midwest as a low pressure wave attempts to form along the front.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
