Updated at 5:02 p.m. EDT Friday, June 30, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023Valid 00Z Sat Jul 01 2023 – 00Z Mon Jul 03 2023
…More severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain to track eastward
from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley for the next couple of days……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories across much of California into
the Desert Southwest as well as through the lower and mid-Mississippi
Valley……Air Quality alerts over parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, central
Appalachians, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A stationary front will be the focus for severe thunderstorms and areas of
heavy rain, tracking eastward from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley
in the short term forecast. These thunderstorms are the result of
upper-level energy ejecting off the Rockies and into the central US,
helping to force precipitation. The strongest storms containing the
heaviest precipitation are expected to gradually shift eastward each day,
stretching from the central & southern High Plains on Friday toward the
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Slight Risks for Excessive
Rainfall are in effect Friday and Saturday over the central High Plains
and Midwest. Thunderstorm complexes developing along the front will likely
contain heavy downpours, hail, and damaging wind gusts, per the Storm
Prediction Center. As a result, Slight Risks for severe weather are in
effect through the weekend across the region, with an Enhanced Risk of
severe weather on Saturday over the lower Ohio River Valley. By Sunday
morning, a more well-defined low pressure wave will enter the lower Great
Lakes region and Northeast, resulting in more synoptically forced
precipitation. Given the locally heavy rainfall that has occurred over the
previous week, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect over
much of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast on Sunday.The same shortwave energy responsible for producing thunderstorms over the
central US will begin to erode the upper ridge responsible for the ongoing
long-term heat wave across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. As the upper ridge weakens, the highest temperatures and heat
indices will slowly trend down, though sweltering heat is anticipated to
continue across the Southeast, particularly along the Gulf Coast. Several
cities across the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast are expected to
break their daily warmest nighttime low records through the weekend.
Heat-related danger remains elevated due to the longevity of this heat
wave. As the ridge moves across the south-central Plains, heat will build
along the West Coast and reach portions of the Northern Plains by Sunday.
Afternoon temperatures in the interior valleys of California may climb
over 100F to near 110F at the hottest locations on Saturday. The Desert
Southwest will see temperatures climb well into the 110s. The risk of
heat-related illnesses will be increased through the weekend.In addition to the heat and the severe storms, Canadian wildfire smoke is
expected to continue impacting portions of Great Lakes and East Coast over
the next few days. However, air quality is expected to slowly improve due
to a combination of thunderstorm activity and dispersion of the smoke as
we head into the weekend.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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