Update at 6:46 p.m. on Thursday, June 29, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jun 30 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 02 2023
…Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect over the central US on
Thursday and Saturday……There is an Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Thursday, and an Enhanced Risk of
severe weather over the Central High Plains Thursday evening……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Central Gulf
Coast……Air Quality alerts over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley,
Great Lakes, Western Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Northeast, and
Mid-Atlantic…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A frontal system draped across the central Plains continues to result in
areas of heavy precipitation across central US, including areas of severe
weather. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) and a Moderate
Risk of Severe Weather (level 4/5) are in effect across portions of the
lower Ohio River Valley into portions of Tennessee as a complex produces
heavy precipitation, hail, and damaging wind gusts. A warm and moist
airmass to the south is helping to provide ample moisture for the current
convective activity across the region. On Thursday evening, the focus for
heavy precipitation will shift toward portions of the north-central
Rockies and High Plains as energy rounding the closed upper low over the
West will interact with a surface boundary in the northern Rockies, which
is forecast to produce heavy precipitation and severe weather across the
region, including regions already saturated with recent heavy rains. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall and an Enhanced Risk of severe weather
(level 3/5) are in effect over the Central High Plains due to the expected
formation of convection overnight. On Friday, this energy will progress
eastward into the central Plains and Midwest. Given the moist environment
in place, widespread convection is likely to initiate across the region.
As a result, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for much
of central Plains on Friday. On Saturday, the threat for excessive
rainfall increases as southwesterly flow ahead of a surface trough will
force ample moisture into a region of large-scale ascent over the Midwest,
including areas impacted by heavy precipitation on Thursday and Friday. As
a result, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect across the
Midwest on Saturday.A deep upper-level trough over portions of New England and the East Coast
is forecast to continue lifting northeastward in the short term, providing
a break from the convective activity that has impacted the region
recently. A slow-moving frontal system at the surface will continue to
progress through eastern New England while slowly weakening. The
combination of modest forcing and terrain-induced lift resulted in a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall to be issued in portions of
northwestern Maine and the White Mountains of New Hampshire. As the trough
continues to lift northeastward, the threat for heavy rainfall shifts
toward the next system approaching from the Midwest. There are Marginal
Risks for Excessive Rainfall on Friday and Saturday across the region as
locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible ahead of a frontal system
approaching from the Northwest. On Friday, portions of the Ohio Valley and
south-central Appalachians may see locally heavy rainfall ahead of this
system. On Saturday, the threat for heavy rainfall shifts northeastward
into the north-central Appalachians and northern New England. The risk for
flash flooding is heightened in areas that have already seen localized
heavy rainfall recently. Temperatures across the region will remain
relatively seasonal through the forecast period, with a modest warming
trend expected heading into the weekend.The upper-level ridge centered over the Mid-South is expected to begin
moving east and gradually weaken through Saturday. For portions of
northern and interior Texas, this means that temperatures will be
returning to near seasonal values, though still generally above average.
For the Mid-South and Gulf Coast, hazardous heat is expected through the
end of the work week underneath the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will
near triple digits, with maximum heat indices likely exceeding 110F across
portions of the Mid-South, low-mid Mississippi Valley, and portions of the
Gulf Coast through Saturday. Nighttime lows are expected to be extremely
warm, and potentially record breaking, providing little relief for the
heat at night.In addition to the current weather activity, Canadian wildfire smoke is
expected to continue impacting portions of the eastern US over the next
few days. However, air quality is expected to improve in the short term as
a combination of thunderstorm activity and dispersion of smoke will
ultimately result in improving air quality conditions for much of the
country heading into the weekend.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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