Updated at 4;52 p.m. June 28, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023Valid 00Z Thu Jun 29 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 01 2023
…Record heat expected from the Central to Southern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley,Lower Tennessee Valley and Central
Gulf coast……Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue to produce poor air quality
from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, Mid West Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic……Heat also forecast to build through the interior valleys of
California……Severe Thunderstorms possible from the Central Plains into the Mid
Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley……Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions to persist from the Four
Corners region into the Southwest…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
An expanding mid to upper level ridge across the Southern Plains into the
Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to drive the record heat wave
affecting the southern portion of the nation. The record high
temperatures that have been mostly over Texas and far southeast New Mexico
over the past week will now be expanding into portions of the Central
Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coastal region over the
next few days. Numerous record high maximum temperatures in the lower
100s and record high minimum temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
are possible over the next few days across these areas. This will
continue to produce life threatening heat wave conditions across a large
portion of the nation from southeast New Mexico, through much of the
Southern Plains, eastern Kansas, into the Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower
Ohio Valley, Lower Tennessee Valley and the central Gulf coastal region.
Across these regions, excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are in
effect and will likely remain in effect through the remainder of this
week. The combination of the record high temperatures, along with high
surface dew points will produce life threatening heat indices values in
the 100 to 120 degree range across these areas. The highest heat indices
over the next several days expected to affect cities from Dallas to
Houston, New Orleans, Jackson, Little Rock, Memphis and Nashville, where
heat indices values off 110 to 120 are expected.While the southern U.S. grapples with excessive heat over the next few
days, poor air quality expected to continue as smoke from the persistent
Canadian wildfires continues to be drawn southward into the Lower 48. Air
quality advisories and alerts currently stretch from the Upper Mississippi
Valley, through the Mid-West, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and into the
Mid-Atlantic. With no end in site to the Canadian wildfires and west to
northwesterly winds expected to persist from south central Canada into the
north central to northeast U.S., poor air quality conditions are likely to
continue.Farther west, heat will also be building over the interior valley of
California late this week as a mid to upper level ridge strengthens over
California and the Great Basin. Excessive heat watches are in effect for
much of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys where high temperatures in
the lower 100s are forecast from late week into this weekend.On the northern edge of the hot temperatures across the Southern to
Central Plains, a stationary frontal boundary is expected to lie west to
east across the Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower
Ohio Valley regions. This front will act a focus for potentially severe
thunderstorms from Wednesday night through Friday. In addition to the
severe weather threat, heavy rains from these storms also pose a risk for
isolated flash floods.There is not expected to be any significant changes to the current weather
pattern from the Four Corners region into the Southwest and portions of
the Southern High Plains. Across these areas, dry conditions, lower
relative humidities and gusty surface winds will continue to support a
large region of elevated to critical fire weather conditions through late
week.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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