Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jun 27 2023Valid 12Z Tue Jun 27 2023 – 12Z Thu Jun 29 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
Mid-Atlantic……There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and two areas of Slight Risk on
Wednesday over parts of Upper Mississippi Valley and Lower Mississippi
Valley……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of the Southwest,
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Central/Western Gulf Coast……Air Quality alerts over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great
Lakes, and Ohio Valley…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A front extending from parts of the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic to the
Southeast and then to the Southern Plains will move eastward to the East
Coast and stall out overnight Tuesday. By Thursday, the front will move
eastward out over the Western Atlantic, Southeast westward to the Middle
Mississippi Valley. On Tuesday, the boundary will produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southeastern New York State,
Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.Furthermore, the associated front will create showers and moderate to
severe thunderstorms over parts of New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland,
Delaware, Virginia, and North Carolina. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.On Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly over the
Northeast. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to
heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northeast from Wednesday through Thursday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.Meanwhile, along the western end of the front mentioned above, over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains, showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop over parts of southern Kansas, Oklahoma, extreme southwestern
Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is a threat of two-inch or
greater hail over the area through Wednesday morning.Moreover, upper-level energy and a nearby front will produce showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the
Northern/Central Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is a threat of
two-inch or greater hail over parts of South Dakota and Nebraska through
Wednesday morning.On Wednesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves
eastward and decreases slightly over the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys from
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.Further, upper-level energy moves eastward over the Upper Midwest,
producing showers and severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Meanwhile, upper-level impulses and a developing upper-level trough will
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin,
Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the Northern Rockies on
Tuesday, continuing into Thursday.Furthermore, wildfire smoke from Canada will reduce air quality over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, prompting Air Quality
Warnings over the area. The smoke could reduce the air quality farther
south into the Ohio Valley.Lastly, an upper-level high over the south-central portion of the country,
along with high temperatures and temperatures not cooling off much
overnight, have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
over most of Texas, Southwest, southern New Mexico, southeastern Oklahoma,
southern Arkansas, Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama,
and Florida Panhandle.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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