Updated at 6:43 p.m. Sunday, June 25, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023Valid 00Z Mon Jun 26 2023 – 00Z Wed Jun 28 2023
…Widespread showers and storms Monday for the East Coast with the risk
of flash flooding and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic……Oppressive heat wave shows no signs of letting up across portions of
the south-central U.S….…Locally heavy rainfall possible for northern portions of the West…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A lingering frontal boundary across the interior Northeast/New England and
a frontal system in the Midwest will continue to lead to showers and
storms overnight Sunday into early Monday. Widespread showers and storms
are expected along the East Coast Monday as the frontal system approaches
from the west. Favorable upper-level dynamics for mid-summer and rich
moisture flowing northward ahead of the system will lead to the risk of
locally heavy rainfall totals and some potentially intense rainfall rates.
A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect for portions
of the Mid-Atlantic where conditions appear most favorable for some
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. In addition, the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the region for an Enhanced Risk of
severe weather (level 3/5). Robust daytime heating will lead to strong
CAPE and vigorous storm development, while sufficient upper-level flow
with an approaching trough will provide enough deep-layer shear for storm
organization. Clusters/lines of storms will be most likely with damaging
winds the main threat, though some hail and a tornado are also possible.
Highs on Monday will range from the low 80s in the Northeast to the low
90s to the South ahead of the system, with highs falling around 5-10
degrees on Tuesday after the system moves through. Much below average
temperatures will continue north of the lingering frontal boundary in
northern New England, where highs will only be in the 60s and low 70s.
Cooler temperatures have also followed the frontal passage in the Great
Lakes region, with highs in the 60s and 70s forecast the next couple of
days.The oppressive heat wave in the south-central U.S. shows no signs of
letting up as a stagnant upper-level ridge remains in place. Widespread
heat-related advisories are in effect for southern Arizona and New Mexico
and across most of Texas as temperatures soar once again into the 100s. A
duality remains in place with the driver of the dangerous heat-related
impacts, with higher air temperatures in the deserts and west Texas and
lower air temperatures but higher humidity and heat indices in east Texas,
both contributing to a significant risk of heat-related illnesses,
especially as the longevity of the heat wave increases. Some daily
record-tying/breaking high temperatures are once again possible both days.
In addition, overnight lows will also be abnormally warm, at
record-tying/breaking levels, providing little to no relief from the heat
overnight. Elsewhere in the region, a weak cold front will bring down
temperatures a bit Monday for the central Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley before the heat wave begins to expand across the region
this week. Gusty winds and very dry antecedent conditions have also lead
to a Critical Risk of Fire Weather for portions of northeastern Arizona
and northwestern New Mexico Monday.Meanwhile, lift ahead of an upper-level trough over the West Coast will
spark daily shower and thunderstorm chances from the northern Great basin
into the northern Rockies/adjacent High Plains Monday and spread into the
northern Plains on Tuesday. Lingering high surface moisture east of the
Rockies will lead to some locally heavy rainfall totals. Highs will
generally be well below average across much of the West, with 60s and low
70s along the West Coast, mid-80s for the central California Valleys, and
70s to low 80s across much of the Great Basin and into the northern
Rockies. Highs will be closer to/above average in the Pacific Northwest,
with 70s in the urban I-5 corridor and mid- to upper 80s in the interior.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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