Updated at 6;09 p.m. Saturday, June 24, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023Valid 00Z Sun Jun 25 2023 – 00Z Tue Jun 27 2023
…Oppressive heat continues for portions of the south-central U.S. this
weekend, expanding into the Southwest on Monday……Risk of severe weather and some flash flooding moves from the
Midwest/Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday to the Mid-Atlantic Monday……Rain chances continue for the northern High Plains as much of the West
sees below average temperatures…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The oppressive heat over portions of the south-central U.S. will continue
as an anomalous upper-level ridge remains in place over northern
Mexico/Texas. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range form the low
100s for east Texas to upper 100s/low 110s for west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. However, higher humidity closer to the Gulf Coast will lead to
heat indices in the 110-115 degree range for much of east Texas. More
daily record-tying/breaking high temperatures are possible, with
record-tying/breaking warm lows providing absolutely no relief from the
heat overnight. Anomalously warm temperatures will begin to spread into
the Desert Southwest Monday as the upper-level ridge builds northwestward,
with highs over 110 forecast for southern Arizona.Showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off for most of the East
Coast Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as a lingering frontal
boundary over the region dissipates. Another front pushing south from
Canada will keep the chance for some locally heavy rain up up over
portions of the Interior Northeast/New England. Further west, an
organizing low pressure/frontal system over the Midwest will moves
eastward over the next couple of days, bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms and the risk of severe weather and some flash flooding from
the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Rich gulf moisture flowing
northward ahead of the front will contribute to very strong CAPE as a
passing upper-level wave and increased winds aloft provide sufficient
deep-layer shear for severe storms on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) for portions of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys with a broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) in place
across the Midwest/Lower Mississippi Valley in anticipation of the mix of
some supercells as well as more organized clusters/lines of storms, with
the primary threat of damaging winds in addition to some large hail and a
few tornadoes. The rich moisture will also contribute to the potential for
heavy rainfall, with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) in
place as clusters of storms may lead to some locally heavy rain totals,
but progressive storm motions should limit the areal extent of the threat.Showers and storms will return to much of the East Coast on Monday as the
frontal system pushes eastward. Widespread convection is expected to
develop over the Mid-Atlantic, with portions of the area under a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4). Locally heavy rain totals of 1-3″
over progressively wetter soils given the recent upward trend in rain the
past few days may lead to some scattered instances of flash flooding.
Strong CAPE over portions of central North Carolina may also lead to some
more intense thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail, with
a Slight Risk of severe weather in place. Forecast highs will range from
the mid-80s to low 90s for much of the East. Hotter temperatures into the
mid- to upper 90s are expected Sunday over portions of the Lower/Middle
Mississippi Valley ahead of the frontal system and cooler temperatures in
the 70s will follow the passage of the system for the Great Lakes.Energetic upper-level flow over the northern tier of the Plains/West will
keep precipitation chances up over the next couple of days. Lingering
moisture over portions of the northern High Plains may contribute to some
locally heavy rainfall totals. High temperatures across the region will
generally be below average, with some areas as much as 10-20 degrees below
average. Cloudy and rainy conditions will keep highs in the mid-70s to low
80s for the northern High Plains. An upper-level trough lingering over the
West Coast will also keep temperatures down, with 60s to low 70s for
coastal California and upper-70s to mid 80s for the central valleys and
the Great Basin. Highs will be closer to average in the Pacific Northwest,
with 70s to low 80s for the I-5 urban corridor and mid-80s for the
interior.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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