Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jun 23 2023 – 00Z Sun Jun 25 2023
…South-central heat wave persists from southern New Mexico into portions
of central/southern Texas……Risk for flash flooding and severe weather across much of the Plains
Friday and Saturday……Wet and cool start to Summer continues for the East Coast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A persistent upper-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S. will
remain in place through the forecast period, continuing the heat wave that
has plagued the region for much of this month. High temperatures Friday
and Saturday across much of southern New Mexico and into portions of
western, southern, and central Texas will range between 105 to 110. Highs
closer to the Gulf Coast will be in the upper 90s to low 100s, but
dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to heat indices of 105-115, locally
as high as 120. Several additional daily record-tying/breaking highs are
possible. In addition, anomalously warm, near record-tying/breaking low
temperatures will bring little relief from the heat at night. A southward
sagging cold front and associated precipitation has brought some brief
relieve to northern portions of Texas as well as Oklahoma and into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. But this will be short lived, as the ridge will
build back northeastward Saturday with highs soaring back into the mid 90s
to low 100s. The hot conditions combined with incoming stronger winds
mixing down aloft as well as low humidity and dry antecedent conditions
have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction
Center for much of New Mexico Friday and Saturday.To the north, an upper-level trough will pass northeastward across the
northern/central Plains, providing lift aloft and encouraging lee
cyclogenesis at the surface, helping to better organize a low
pressure/frontal system from lingering frontal boundaries over the region.
The upper-level and low-level forcing along the organizing fronts, as well
as a strong low level jet advecting plenty of moisture northward, will
combine to promote the development of widespread, organized showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential to produce several inches of heavy
rainfall. There are Slight Risks (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall in
place for portions of the northern High Plains/northern Plains Friday and
further east into the Upper Midwest on Saturday as some isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. Severe weather is
also expected, and the there is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe
Weather from the Storm Prediction Center over portions of the central High
Plains among a broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) covering much of the High
Plains. Moist, upslope flow combined with cooling temperatures aloft will
lead to sufficient CAPE for vigorous thunderstorm development with the
potential to produce large hail and damaging winds, as well as isolated
tornadoes. Additional severe storms are possible on Saturday ahead of a
cold front pushing east across the Missouri Valley, with a Slight Risk for
large hail as well as some damaging winds.An upper-level low over the eastern U.S. as well as a lingering frontal
boundary will keep temperatures unseasonably cool for the start of Summer
and shower and storm chances up into the weekend. Some locally heavy
downpours will be possible, but dry antecedent conditions across much of
the Northeast will keep any flash flood related risk low. One exception
will be along the central to eastern Gulf Coast, where deeper Gulf
moisture and clustering storms along the frontal boundary over a region
that has seen much more rainfall the past few days has prompted a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall for some scattered instances of flash flooding.
High temperatures Friday and Saturday will range from the mid-70s in the
Ohio Valley and southern New England to the low to mid-80s in the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. On the other hand, outside of the influence of
the upper-level low, the Great Lakes/Midwest and northern New England will
be above average, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. In the West,
showers and storms should be mostly limited to portions of the Northern
Rockies, with some locally heavy rainfall possible. Temperatures across
the region will similarly be below average with an upper-level trough over
the region, with mostly 70s and low 80s expected outside of the Desert
Southwest, where highs will be in the 90s to low 100s.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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