Updated at 3:26 p.m. Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023Valid 00Z Wed Jun 21 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 23 2023
…Severe weather possible for parts of the Great Plains, Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast today and Wednesday……Excessive Rainfall expected in parts of the Great Plains, Lower
Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday……Record breaking heat wave persists in Texas…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.Tonight we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Over the next few days, two nearly stationary frontal boundaries will
dominate the weather pattern in the continental United States. One will
drape across the southern Plains, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic.
The second frontal system will extend from Canada across the northern and
central Plains, intermountain West, and Southwest. The upper level and
surface weather pattern will be fairly stagnant through the end of the
work week, and this pattern will support chances of showers and storms
each day across the Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and
southern Mid-Atlantic.Some storms in the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast
may be strong to severe, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) for parts of these regions
for today and Wednesday. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will
be possible with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats.In addition to severe thunderstorm threats, excessive rainfall is expected
to threaten parts of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley,
Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday. Over the next three days,
2-3+ inches of rainfall are forecast from Maryland to the Florida
Panhandle and 1-2+ inches of rainfall are forecast for parts of the
northern and central Plains. Locally higher amounts will be possible, and
excessive rainfall may lead to flash flooding. Today there is a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Lower Mississippi Valley and a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) in effect for the western Carolinas. Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) are also in effect for parts of the Great Plains,
Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast for Wednesday and Thursday.Record breaking heat is forecast to continue in Texas for the next several
days as the weather pattern remains the same. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 100s and 110s in South, Central, and West Texas with
heat index values as high as 120 degrees. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories are in effect for most of the state. Above average temperatures
will also persist across the Upper Midwest through the end of the week,
while below normal temperatures persist across much of the West,
Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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