Updated at 6.00 p.m. EDT Monday June 19, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023Valid 00Z Tue Jun 20 2023 – 00Z Thu Jun 22 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast through Wednesday and over the Northern/Central High Plains on
Wednesday……There is a Sight Risk of Severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast/Central Gulf Coast and Northern Plains from Monday to Tuesday……Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the Central and
Western Gulf Coast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.Tonight we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Upper-level energy over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will slowly drift
around the area as a weak front over much of the south-central and
southeastern parts of the country, plus high moisture values, will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of North/South
Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. Therefore, through Tuesday
morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Furthermore, a second area of excessive rainfall will develop over parts
of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast
through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.Moreover, a front over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia,
and Florida will create showers and severe thunderstorms over the area.
Therefore, through Tuesday morning, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast,
and Central Gulf Coast. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.Furthermore, upper-level energy will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of central Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.Additionally, a second front over the Northern Plains to the Southwest
moves slowly eastward, then stalls out over the region by Wednesday. The
boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of North
Dakota and Montana. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast, southern Mid-Atlantic, and
Southern Appalachians from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.In addition, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues over parts of
the Northern Plains and the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.A second area over the Gulf Coast will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast from Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.By Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
western South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, and far northwestern Kansas.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern/Central High Plains. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.Also, on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop
over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic, Southern Appalachians, and
Southeast. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable. Additionally, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces to a
Marginal Risk over the Central/Southern High Plains.Furthermore, upper-level ridging, high temperatures, and temperatures not
cooling off much overnight have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories over the Central and Western Gulf Coast.Elsewhere, a deep upper-level low will move over the Northwest, creating
scattered rain showers over parts of the Northwest into the Northern
Rockies from Monday evening into Wednesday afternoon.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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