The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology
From the JAMSTEC Discussion:
“As predicted, the recent observation confirms the occurrence of an El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will continue to develop in June–July, mature in August, and persist at least until the next boreal spring.” [JAMSTEC predicts an El Nino that is weaker than forecast by NOAA and most other Meteorological Agencies]
Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.
First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on June 12, 2023.
| This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Notice the water along the Equator in the Pacific. Blue is cool (as an anomaly) and is associated with La Nina. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino. You can see the El Nino in all three time periods. It seems to be stronger in the 1st and 2nd time periods. The warmest water shifts west in the third period exhibiting Modoki characteristics. [ I have similar information on their SSTA projections from NOAA but I usually do not include it in the article I write on the NOAA Seasonal Outlook because they do not seem to focus on it and their information does not extend as far into the future as does the information from JAMSTEC]. It is hard to find any blue in this set of forecasts. JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology as NOAA). They do a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. |
Then we look at three seasonal forecasts. JAMSTEC works with meteorological seasons and this month it does not line up perfectly. This means we do not have three full seasons of forecasts this month because the first three-month period overlaps the second one. JJA is meteorological summer and JAS is two months of summer and one month of autumn.
| I do have some concerns about the JAMSTEC precipitation forecasts this month. There are large parts of the world where few anomalies are shown. That seems strange to me but that may be the case. The maps do seem to be consistent with the short discussion that they provided so I decided to publish this article. |
| This covers July/August/September (JAS 2023).
Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown below: “The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the July–August–September average.” “As regards the average rainfall in the July–August–September average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Indonesia, some parts of Indochina, and Taiwan. In contrast, Mexico, La Plata, Sri Lanka, central and western Africa, some parts of India, some parts of coastal Indochina, some parts of East Asia, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño.” “The model predicts that most of Japan will be hotter and wetter than normal in the summer. “ |
| This covers September/October/November (SON 2023) which is meteorological Fall.
Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown below: “In the boreal autumn (austral spring), the model also predicts that almost all of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions.” In the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, some parts of the South American continent, eastern Australia, some parts of southern Africa, Madagascar, Indonesia, the Philippines, and some parts of Indochina. In contrast, Alaska, Mexico, some parts of La Plata, the Horn of Africa, some parts of central and western Africa, some parts of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and some parts of coastal Indochina will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.” “In the autumn, the model still predicts that most of Japan will be hotter than normal.” |
| And above, December/January/February (DJF) 2023/2024 which is meteorological Winter. JAMSTEC does not provide its interpretation of its third season but one can observe it on the maps. |
Now I am going to provide their single-month forecasts for July, August and September.
| The above is the single month of July 2023 |
| The above is the single month of August 2023 |
| The above is the single month of September 2023 |
Now we look at the key indices used by JAMSTEC in making their forecast. Perhaps I should have presented these first.
| This forecast is for a moderate strength El Nino (Nino 3.4 greater than 1). Many others are forecasting a strong El Nino. |
| It looks like we will have a Positive IOD. Below is shown the typical impact of a positive IOD. But the impacts can be complex. |
And here is the short JAMSTEC Discussion
ENSO forecast:
As predicted, the recent observation confirms the occurrence of an El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will continue to develop in June–July, mature in August, and persist at least until the next boreal spring.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event will occur in the boreal summer.
Regional forecast:
The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the July–August–September average. In the boreal autumn (austral spring), the model also predicts that almost all of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions.
As regards the average rainfall in the July–August–September average, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Indonesia, some parts of Indochina, and Taiwan. In contrast, Mexico, La Plata, Sri Lanka, central and western Africa, some parts of India, some parts of coastal Indochina, some parts of East Asia, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. In the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, some parts of the South American continent, eastern Australia, some parts of southern Africa, Madagascar, Indonesia, the Philippines, and some parts of Indochina. In contrast, Alaska, Mexico, some parts of La Plata, the Horn of Africa, some parts of central and western Africa, some parts of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and some parts of coastal Indochina will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will be hotter and wetter than normal in the summer. In the autumn, the model still predicts that most of Japan will be hotter than normal.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful |
