Updated at 10 31 p.m. EDT June 13, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023Valid 00Z Wed Jun 14 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 16 2023
…Severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat located across the
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast over the next few
days……Locally heavy rain possible within scattered thunderstorms throughout
the Intermountain West, Rockies, and central High Plains today……Triple digit heat to expand throughout most of Texas by the end of the
week; Critical fire weather today across southern New Mexico…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the World Agriculture Report. You can access this report HERE. We also published the June 1 Update of the Colorado and Eastern Great Basin. You can access that article HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A well-defined dryline and a lingering frontal boundary stretching across
the Southern Plains into the Southeast continues to focus thunderstorm
activity across the region, with daily chances of both severe weather and
flash flooding expected over the next three days. Ample moisture in place
from the nearby Gulf of Mexico will allow for thunderstorms to contain
intense rainfall rates, with the potential for storms to overlap and
produce locally heavy rainfall totals. Scattered flash flooding is
possible between the ArkLaTex region and southeast Georgia today, with the
greatest threat of flash floods gradually focusing eastward atop the
Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. Through the end of the work week, the
forecast for 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over the next three days remains on
track across southern Arkansas into southern Georgia, with locally higher
amounts possible. Rainfall rates aside, the ample Gulf of Mexico moisture
within the warm sector of the front will also support an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms today over northeast Texas (which
includes the DFW metro) primarily for large hail and damaging winds.
Another Enhanced Risk for severe weather exists on Wednesday between the
ArkLaMiss and southeast Georgia, where very large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes are all possible.Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will once again remain likely
throughout the Sierra Nevada, Intermountain West, Rockies, and central
High Plains today within weak upper-level flow. A few storms could contain
heavy rainfall rates given anomalous moisture available overhead, which
may lead to isolated flash flooding concerns, especially across sensitive
terrain including burn scars. The central High Plains in particular have
been very wet as of late, which may locally increase the threat of
flooding depending on where heavy rain occurs, where a Slight Risk (level
(2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect today. Further west, a strong
cold front and sharp upper-level trough are forecast to enter the
Northwest by this evening before shifting into the Northern Plains on
Wednesday. This system will act to shift shower/thunderstorm activity
farther east into the Northern and Central Plains on Thursday which could
yield some isolated instances of flash flooding. A slow-moving upper-level
low over the Great Lakes will also maintain scattered shower activity
across the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley over the next few days.
However, this additional rainfall will likely be seen as beneficial given
the extended dry spell over this region.For much of Texas, oppressive heat and humidity will make for several
uncomfortable afternoons and evenings outdoors. Outside of the Texas
Panhandle, highs are expected to reach into the upper 90s and low 100s
over at least the next few days. Heat indices throughout southern Texas
are expected to reach into the 110s. The triple digit heat is also
forecast to expand slightly northward by Thursday into parts of
north-central Texas. While summer heat is not atypical throughout the Lone
Star State, the upcoming hot weather will have the potential to break a
few daily high temperature records toward the end of the work week.
Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety tips by staying
hydrated and limiting time outdoors during the peak daytime heating hours.
In contrast to the oppressive humidity over Texas, critical fire weather
conditions (level 2/3) are expected today across southern New Mexico west
of the dryline given warm temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds.
Fire weather chances are forecast to improve tomorrow, although an
Elevated (level 1/3) risk of fire weather conditions remains across
southern New Mexico and far southeast Arizona.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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