Updated at 4:05 p.m. EDT July 8, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Thu Jun 08 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jun 09 2023 – 00Z Sun Jun 11 2023
…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash
flooding over parts of the Northern Rockies/Plains tonight……Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic……Temperatures will be below average over parts of California/Southwest
and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Weather Update for June. You can access it HERE. We also published the Weekly Crop Report. It can be accessed HERE Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Upper-level impulses and moisture trapped under an upper-level ridge from
the North Intermountain Region to the Upper Mississippi Valley and
southward to the South Rockies to the Central Gulf Coast will produce
showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Some of the showers and
thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of Idaho, Washington
State, Oregon, Montana, and Wyoming. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region/Northern Rockies through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall elongates into the South
Dakoda. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains and Northern
Plains from Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.Moreover, an upper-level low over Great Basin/Southwest will slowly move
northward to the Northern Intermountain Region while weakening, as a
second upper-level low over the Eastern Pacific moves to the Northern
California Coast by Saturday. As a result, the system will produce showers
and thunderstorms over parts of California and the Pacific Northwest/Great
Basin through Saturday. The upper-level troughing will aid in keeping
temperatures below average in parts of California/Southwest. Additionally,
a weak front will move southward from the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central Gulf Coast, Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains by Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary on Thursday
into Saturday morning.Meanwhile, an upper-level low over New England continues over the region
through Saturday. On Thursday, rain and drizzle will develop over parts of
the Northeast through Saturday. The upper-level low will aid in keeping
temperatures below average in parts of the Northeast into the Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic.Wildfire smoke moving southward out of Canada and over the northern part
of the country has triggered Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The air quality will
be decreasing over Alabama and Georgia on Thursday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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