Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023Valid 00Z Wed May 31 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 02 2023
…Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across large
portions of the central U.S., the northern Rockies and northern Great
Basin……Scattered showers spread into the southern Mid-Atlantic today, with an
increasing chance of thunderstorms across southern Florida on Wednesday……Much above average temperatures expected along the northern tier of the
nation, while cooler than normal conditions accompany the showers across
the Southeast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA 2023 Hurricane Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The upper-level pattern over the contiguous U.S. remains blocked going
into the next few days, indicating that there will not be many large-scale
changes in the short-term forecast period. There is a broad trough over
the western half of the country, a positively-tilted trough over the
southeast U.S. and into the western Atlantic Ocean, and a closed
upper-level high over the central and Northeastern U.S.Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
much of the West, particularly over areas extending from northern
California into the Yellowstone region, as well as into portions of the
central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous during the
daytime, where daytime heating and terrain-induced lift may initiate
showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall rates of 0.5-1″/hr are possible
across a broad portion of the West, which may result in localized flash
flooding, especially in urban/poor drainage areas. Therefore, a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of the
Intermountain West/northern High Plains. By Wednesday into Thursday, a
mid-upper low over the Four Corners region will eject toward the northern
High Plains and increase chances for heavy precipitation over northern
Wyoming and Montana. Therefore, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for Excessive
Rainfall is in effect for portions of Montana on Thursday. Temperatures
will generally cool across the region through the middle of this week,
with mostly seasonal high temperatures expected across the region by
midweek.Over the High Plains, shortwaves embedded in the broad trough over the
West may initiate showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy and severe
impacts possible. In addition, sustained moist, southerly flow from the
Gulf of Mexico may act to enhance rainfall rates/totals and induce severe
weather. This setup has the potential to produce isolated heavy rainfall
accumulations of 1-2″ (locally higher) across portions of the
central/southern Plains. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect for this region for the aforementioned reasons. Additionally, the
Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
weather for much of far-eastern Colorado, far western Kansas, as well as
the adjacent surrounding areas. The primary severe hazard will be high
wind gusts. Given the blocked upper-level pattern, isolated regions of
heavy rainfall and severe weather are possible over the western High
Plains through the rest of the forecast period.Across the Mid-Atlantic, a weakening upper low will slowly drift into the
Atlantic as a back-door cold front pushes colder air from New England down
the East Coast and Appalachians. Light scattered showers and thunderstorms
will slowly dissipate throughout Tuesday evening, with conditions becoming
cooler and drier over in the short-term forecast. To the south, an
upper-level trough will settle over the central Gulf of Mexico, which may
spawn a new low-pressure system at the surface. This system is being
currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, with a 10%
chance of formation through the next 48 hours. The exact track of this
system remains uncertain, but current forecasts keep it relatively
stationary over the central Gulf in the near-term. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with locally heavy amounts possible, are expected to
initiate over the Florida Peninsula starting on Wednesday with high
moisture content draped across the region.A closed upper high will remain relatively stationary across the
northeastern portion of the nation from the Great Lakes into New England.
Dry conditions and well above average temperatures will accompany this
upper high with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average across
much of the northern tier from the northern Plains, through the upper
Great Lakes, northern New York State into northern New England. Some high
temperature records may be broken this week over portions of the Great
Lakes and Northeast, particularly on Thursday afternoon. In contrast,
cooler than average temperatures over the next few days will be associated
with the showery pattern across the southeastern U.S. and along the West
coast into the Desert Southwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
