Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023Valid 00Z Sun May 28 2023 – 00Z Tue May 30 2023
…A convective low pressure system is forecast to bring areas of heavy
rain, gusty winds and hazardous beach and boating conditions for the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic through the Memorial Day weekend……Showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great Basin,
northern and central Rockies, and the High Plains for the next few days……Warmer than normal across much of the Northwest and north-central U.S.
but much cooler than normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook. You can access it HERE. It announces the coming of a full El Nino. There remain questions about how strong it will be and exactly when it will arrive. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Overall, the general flow pattern features troughing across the West and
Southeast and ridging over the Northeast. The Western trough, with cooler
temperatures aloft, will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the
Great Basin into the Northern Rockies of Montana each day once daytime
heating increases the available instability; strong to severe
thunderstorms will be most active from late afternoon into the evening
hours from southeast Montana through the western Panhandle of Texas
through the Memorial Day weekend. A Moderate Risk for scattered to
numerous instances of flash flooding is expected this evening and tonight
across portions of the Permian Basin/Caprock of Texas; 4-10″ of rain has
fallen in that area over the past couple of days. The severe weather risk
will be more limited in coverage and intensity into Monday through the
length the High Plains, with the best potential across the northern High
Plains. Some of these thunderstorms will be slow-moving and have the
potential for very high rainfall rates. The severe weather and heavy rain
potentials are expected to shift only slightly eastward but again cover
the length of the High Plains Sunday into Monday morning.Meanwhile, a convective low pressure system has strengthened moving over
the Atlantic waters off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Bands of heavy
rain are expected to push onshore tonight with strengthening winds prior
to the arrival of the low center on Sunday morning. Coastal communities
across the Southeast can expect strong and gusty winds, high surfs, in
addition to life threatening rip currents for much of the weekend.
Boating conditions will be treacherous with a Storm Warning issued by the
Ocean Prediction Center/NWS Forecast Office in Charleston for the offshore
waters of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, squally showers and thunderstorms are
expected to spread inland with high rainfall potential. A Moderate Risk
of Excessive Rainfall will remain in effect for parts of the NC/SC coastal
plain tonight; scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are
expected. On Sunday, once moving inland, the low pressure system is
forecast to gradually weaken. Heavy rainbands on the outer periphery of
the storm are forecast to push northward across Virginia on Sunday, with
the occurrences of flash flooding expected to be more isolated to widely
scattered. Slow improvement in the weather is anticipated into Monday
morning but cloudy and rainy conditions are expected to cover the southern
to central Mid-Atlantic States on Memorial Day.Elsewhere, across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Northeast and
Southwest should have a very pleasant weekend. Temperatures will be
average for much of the southern portion of the central U.S.; though the
northern tier, particularly the Plains and Upper Great Lakes will see
above normal — but not oppressive — temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
–
I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
