Updated at 5:15 p.m. EDT Wed May 24, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023Valid 00Z Thu May 25 2023 – 00Z Sat May 27 2023
…Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern High Plains this
evening……Isolated to scattered locally heavy rain and thunderstorms to impact
parts of the Southeast, Great Basin, northern Rockies, and much of the
High Plains over the next few days……Well above average temperatures confined to the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through the end of the week, while much cooler temperatures
push into the Great Lakes and Northeast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA ENSO Update. You can access it HERE. It announces the coming of a full El Nino. There remain questions about how strong it will be. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Two main areas of active weather are forecast to impact the Nation through
the end of this week, with chances for severe thunderstorms and localized
heavy rain. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances are expected
across the Intermountain West, Rockies, and High Plains as a slow-moving
longwave upper-level trough anchors over the western United States. Severe
weather chances are greatest this evening across the southern High Plains,
where the Storm Prediction Center highlights an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
of severe thunderstorms across parts eastern New Mexico and northwest
Texas. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts are
possible into the overnight hours. Additionally, a few storms could
contain intense rainfall rates and lead to localized flooding. An isolated
severe and flash flooding threat also extends into the Intermountain West,
northern Rockies, and central/northern High Plains between this evening
and Friday due to daily thunderstorm chances.Meanwhile, a lingering frontal boundary over the Florida Peninsula and
developing area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will allow for
unsettled weather throughout the Sunshine State and Southeast coastal
region through Friday. Thunderstorm chances should become more isolated
over Florida on Thursday, but precipitation will spread northward toward
the coastal Carolinas on Friday. Rain could be locally heavy at times and
lead to isolated flooding concerns. Additionally, gusty northeasterly
winds associated with the aforementioned low pressure system could create
rough surf and beach hazards from North Carolina to Florida into early
this weekend.Dry conditions are expected across the Southwest, West Coast, and much of
the eastern half of the Nation (outside of Florida and the Southeast) to
end the last full week of May. Strong high pressure building into the
Great Lakes and Northeast will usher in below average temperatures. In
fact, lows are expected to dip into the mid-to-upper 30s and low 40s
across the Great Lakes and Northeast both Thursday and Friday morning.
This may lead to isolated frost in the early morning hours. Elsewhere,
above average temperatures throughout the northern Plains are forecast to
migrate into the Upper Midwest by Friday, with highs into the mid-80s.
Warm temperatures are also expected throughout the Northwest ahead of the
holiday weekend, with highs into the low 80s.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
