Updated at 4:56 p.m. EDT Monday, May 15, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023Valid 00Z Tue May 16 2023 – 00Z Thu May 18 2023
…Above-normal temperatures to persist in the West….
…Additional heavy rain and flooding possible from the Southern Plains to
the Southeast……Heavy rainfall for parts of the Northwest & Southwest; much cooler
temperatures arrive in the Northeast mid-week…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA ENSO Update. You can access it HERE. It announces the coming of a full El Nino. There remain questions about how strong it will be. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The Pacific Northwest is once again well on its way to seeing daytime
highs soar into the upper 80s and low 90s today with more record breaking
warmth expected. Tuesday and Wednesday will not feature as many days with
record highs compared to over the weekend and Monday, but daily average
temperature departures will still range between 15-25 degrees above normal
through mid-week. Record highs may be harder to come by, but numerous
record warm minimum temperatures will be common throughout the Pacific
Northwest.Farther east, a complex and winding frontal boundary that extends from
West Texas to the Southeast coast will be the focus for rounds of showers
and severe thunderstorms through Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center
(WPC) posted a pair of Slight Risks for Excessive Rainfall this afternoon;
one in south Texas and another stretching from eastern Oklahoma to the
Mississippi-Ohio River Confluence, where strong and occasionally slow
moving thunderstorms could cause areas of flash flooding. Some storms
could also be severe, particularly from the Ozarks on east to the
Tennessee Valley where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal
Risk (threat level 1/5) in place. By Tuesday, low pressure organizing
along the frontal boundary in the Tennessee Valley sets up a more active
day of severe weather from the Cumberland Plateau to the southern
Mid-Atlantic. SPC has issued a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) with severe
storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. WPC
also has a Slight Risk in place for portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and
the southern Appalachians. By Wednesday, The storm system will be tracking
out to sea while its trailing cold front pushes across the Gulf Coast
states. WPC has issued an expansive Marginal Risk area from southern
Louisiana to the Southeast coast as storms will be capable of producing
some areas of flash flooding.Elsewhere, a pesky upper low over the Northwest with highly anomalous
moisture to work with aloft will prompt daily rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies. The
primary concern is for downpours that cause localized flash flooding. WPC
has issued a pair of Marginal Risks for Excessive Rainfall; one in central
Oregon and western Washington today, another from eastern Washington to
western Montana on Tuesday, to highlight the potential flash flood threat.
In the Southwest, an approaching upper low over Baja California on
Wednesday will cause an increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage. WPC
posted a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall along the Mogollon Rim for
Wednesday. Lastly, a cold front racing south through the Northeast will
deliver another shot of below normal temperatures Tuesday night and into
Wednesday. Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees below normal on Wednesday
across the interior Northeast and morning lows on Thursday could dip close
to freezing in some spots.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
