Updated at 6:10 p.m. Saturday, May 13, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023Valid 00Z Sun May 14 2023 – 00Z Tue May 16 2023
…Much above-average temperatures expected to continue across the western
U.S., including record-breaking heat over portions of the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday...…Additional heavy rain and flooding possible for parts of Texas and
Oklahoma into early next week……Severe storms expected for parts of the mid Mississippi Valley into
Saturday evening…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA ENSO Update. You can access it HERE. It announces the coming of a full El Nino. There remain questions about how strong it will be. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
High pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will continue to
support well-above normal temperatures across the western U.S., with
record-breaking heat expected across portions of the Pacific Northwest.
Heat advisories remain in effect for portions of western Washington and
Oregon, including the Seattle and Portland metro regions, where daytime
temperatures are forecast to once again reach 20-30 degrees above normal
on Sunday. While temperatures are likely to remain well above average, an
upper level low drifting north into the region is expected to increase the
chance for showers and thunderstorms and bring some relief from the early
season heat wave on Monday. Heat advisories are in effect into Monday for
California’s San Joaquin Valley, where high temperatures are forecast to
reach into the mid to upper 90s each day.Farther to the east, a series of slow-moving upper-level disturbances will
help to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms and keep temperatures
much cooler across the southern and central Plains through the weekend,
with well-below temperatures likely along the High Plains into the
foothills. Flood Watches remain in effect for portions of Texas and
Oklahoma, where additional periods of heavy rain will remain possible
through the remainder of the weekend.Flooding and severe thunderstorms are also possible farther to the north
across portions of the upper and mid Mississippi Valley. Severe storms
are now developing over the region, with the threat expected to continue
into this evening. These storms have the potential to produce damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Heavy rain is also possible with
a Flood Watch in effect across southwestern Minnesota and a small portion
of northwestern Iowa. By late Sunday, high pressure is forecast to bring
drier and more settled weather to the northern Plains and upper Midwest.In the eastern U.S., a cold front will continue to drop south through the
Mid Atlantic into the Southeast, with showers and storms possible into
early next week across portions of the southern Mid Atlantic and the
Southeast. Cooler and drier conditions are forecast for the Northeast on
Sunday, with Frost Advisories in effect for Sunday morning for portions
of far northern New York and Vermont.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
