Updated at 8:55 p.m. EDT Friday, May 12, 2013
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023Valid 00Z Sat May 13 2023 – 00Z Mon May 15 2023
…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather likely across large
portions of the Plains……Much above average to record heat building across the Pacific
Northwest, while below average temperatures expected across large portions
of the Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA ENSO Update. You can access it HERE. It announces the coming of a full El Nino. There remain questions about how strong it will be. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
An active and wet weather pattern setting up for the mid section of the
nation this Mother’s Day weekend. Two strong, well defined upper level
lows will focus heavy rainfall, flash flooding and severe thunderstorms
threats across large portions of the mid section of the nation.
Initially, the heaviest precipitation is expected to focus ahead of the
strong closed low over the Central Plains, which will be lifting slowly
northward Friday night into Saturday toward the Northern Plains. This
will bring heavy rain potential and isolated flash flooding from eastern
Montana, across much of the Dakotas, northern Nebraska, Iowa and southern
Minnesota. Severe thunderstorms also possible across these areas,
especially from eastern Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, across Iowa and
into northwestern Illinois. Across these regions high winds, large hail
and tornadoes are possible. Farther to the south, another well defined
upper level closed low will be forming across northeast Mexico and lifting
northward into southwest to western Texas/eastern New Mexico from Friday
night into Sunday. Widespread heavy rains are likely across much of
Texas, Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, northeast New Mexico into southeast
Colorado. Flash flood watches are currently in effect across large
portions of the Southern Plains. While bringing potential for flash
flooding, the expected heavy rains will also bring relief to the severe to
extreme/exceptional drought conditions currently affecting large portions
of the Southern Plains. In addition to the heavy rain and flash flooding
threat, severe thunderstorms also possible across large portions of the
Southern Plains where large hail and high winds will be the greatest
threat. In the areas of heavy rainfall potential, temperatures will be
below average over the next few days given limited sunshine potential,
with high temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees below average.In contrast to the below average temperatures, heat will continue to build
from the Desert Southwest, through California and into the Pacific
Northwest where an upper level ridge will be strengthening. High
temperatures across these regions expected to be from 10 to 25 degrees
above average this weekend. Some of the largest high temperature
anomalies are expected over the western portions of Oregon and Washington
State where both record high afternoon temperatures and record high
morning low temperatures are possible through the weekend. Heat
advisories are in effect for this early season heat wave through the
weekend across areas to the west of the Washington and Oregon Cascades.Above average temperatures also likely across areas from the Mississippi
River, eastward through much of the eastern U.S. While afternoon highs
are expected to be as great as 10 to 15 degrees above average, no record
high temperatures are expected from the Mississippi River eastward to the
east coast. There is, however, potential for near record to record high
minimum temperatures in the urban corridor from Boston to Washington D.C.
Saturday morning.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
