Updated at 8:56 p.m. EDT Tuesday May 9, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Tue May 09 2023Valid 00Z Wed May 10 2023 – 00Z Fri May 12 2023
…Heavy rain and flash flooding likely across southeast Texas through
Wednesday……Several chances for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding throughout
the Plains through Thursday……Fire Weather concerns exist from the southern Rockies to the
Southwest……Well-above average temperatures for areas east of the Continental
Divide through Thursday...
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Colorado Basin and Utah Basin Report for conditions as of May 1, 2023. You can access it HERE. It also contains information on other Western Reservoirs and on the Annual Plan for the Rio Grande. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The main weather story through Thursday will be the active pattern east of
the Continental Divide, with numerous chances for heavy rainfall and
severe thunderstorms, especially in the central U.S. In the meantime, as a
frontal boundary slowly pushes southward through the Mid-Atlantic, a warm,
moist airmass on the southern side of the front will be conducive to the
development of severe thunderstorms throughout southern Virginia and
eastern North Carolina through Tuesday evening. As a result, the Storm
Prediction Center has placed the area in a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms.Further west, heavy rainfall will be a major concern across southern
Texas, as intense rainfall rates and flash flooding will be possible
through Wednesday. The potential exists for several rounds of heavy rain,
which could lead to localized rainfall totals in excess of 5 inches,
resulting in likely instances of flash flooding from the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast to areas inland across the southeast Texas Triangle,
which includes the entire Houston metro region. The heavy rainfall threat
will linger into Wednesday for the aforementioned area due to the eventual
organized convective complex drifting slowly northward into eastern Texas
and the Lower Mississippi Valley. To further highlight the flash flood
concern, a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for much of
Southeast Texas for Tuesday afternoon/evening and Wednesday. Residents and
visitors throughout this region are advised to pay close attention to the
forecast, especially if you live within a flood-prone region. As always,
be sure to never drive through a flooded roadway and have multiple ways to
receive warnings.Looking northward, the frontal boundary responsible for severe
thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic will also aid in the development of a
convective complex that is expected to produce a multitude of weather
hazards across the central Plains on Tuesday. Large hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes will be possible across Kansas and far northern
Oklahoma, including heavy rainfall rates embedded in these storms, which
could lead to isolated flooding concerns. As a result, the Storm
Prediction Center has placed much of central Kansas in an Enhanced Risk of
Severe Thunderstorms, while an overlapping Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is also in effect for the area.On Wednesday, an upper-level trough pressing eastward into the Plains will
promote further chances of thunderstorm development and heavy rainfall
stretching from the High Plains southward through areas just east of the
Rockies. With plentiful atmospheric moisture surging northward and upslope
enhancement at work, widespread areal average precipitation amounts
between 1-3″ across eastern Wyoming, southeast Montana, and parts of the
western Dakotas are forecast through Thursday, resulting in a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall being hoisted for these areas on Wednesday and
Thursday. Severe thunderstorms will also be of concern on both days, with
the threat shifting slightly eastward into the central Plains and extreme
western Missouri Valley on Thursday as a deepening surface low in southern
Colorado and attendant dryline begins to slowly track into Kansas and the
Oklahoma Panhandle. The primary hazards associated with this system will
be damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Meanwhile, on the
southern side of this developing system, strong winds and low relative
humidity will create Critical Fire Weather conditions from south-central
Colorado throughout much of New Mexico on Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings are
in effect for this region as well.Elsewhere, well-above average temperatures are forecast east of the
Continental Divide, with further warming expected across the Midwest,
Great Lakes, and Northeast through the end of the week. By Thursday,
almost all locations east of the Rockies will experience highs in the 80s,
with portions of New England remaining in the 70s.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
