Updated at 5:26 p.m. EDT Monday May 8, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Mon May 08 2023Valid 00Z Tue May 09 2023 – 00Z Thu May 11 2023
…An active period of showers and thunderstorms expected across large
portions of the nation over the next few days……Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across eastern and coastal
Texas……Above average temperatures expected across much of the Plains,
Mississippi Valley and Southeast, while below average temperatures
expected along the West coast, inland into the Great Basin and across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic……Fire Weather threat to continue across the Southern High Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Colorado Basin and Utah Basin Report for conditions as of May 1, 2023. You can access it HERE. It also contains information on other Western Reservoirs and on the Annual Plan for the Rio Grande. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A surface frontal boundary stretching from the the Southern Plains,
eastward through the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic will be the focus for active showers and thunderstorms over
the next 12 to 36 hours. An area of showers and thunderstorms expected
to push east southeastward from the lower Great Lakes, across the Ohio
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Monday evening into early Tuesday,
producing areas of locally heavy rains. The best chance for isolated
flash flooding and severe thunderstorms with this area of showers and
thunderstorms will be from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley Monday evening/night and then across the eastern Carolinas during
Tuesday.At the same time, an upper level system will rotate east northeastward
from northern California into the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies
region from this afternoon into Tuesday. This system will also support
widespread showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern U.S., although
any rainfall amounts are not expected to produce any significant flooding
threat.To the south of this, a stronger area of upper level energy will push
quickly inland across Southern California on Tuesday and through the
Southwest on Wednesday. This system will be moisture starved with little
if any precip expected to California or the Southwest over the next two
day. More widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms possible ahead
of this strong upper system across the Great Basin and Central to Northern
Rockies Wednesday afternoon into evening.The best chances for heavy rains over the next two days will be across
portions of eastern and coastal Texas. Several waves of upper level
energy expected to push east northeastward from northeastern Mexico into
Texas and support a heavy rainfall threat over the next two days across
these region. With the potential for more than one round of heavy rains
to affect portions of eastern and coastal Texas, there will be the threat
of isolated flash flooding. The heavy rains are expected to fall,
however, to the east of areas of central and western Texas that remain in
severe to exceptional drought.The continued dry conditions and increasingly gusty winds across the
Southern High Plains, will support an increasing fire weather threat for
this region over the next two days, especially across much of New Mexico,
southeast Colorado, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle and Southwest Texas.Temperatures expected to remain above average for the early part of the
week across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast.
Below average temperatures expected along the west coast into the Great
Basin, across eastern Texas where heavy rains will limit sunshine and
across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday where rains will
also limit the amount of sunshine.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
