Updated at 4:28 p.m. EDT Sunday, May 7, 2023 (“risky” is the word of the day)
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Sun May 07 2023Valid 00Z Mon May 08 2023 – 00Z Wed May 10 2023
…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the
Central/Southern Plains to the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday, a Marginal Risk in the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley on Monday, and Central/Southern Plains on
Tuesday……There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
High Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Colorado Basin and Utah Basin Report for conditions as of May 1, 2023. You can access it HERE. It also contains information on other Western Reservoirs. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A wavy front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern High Plains
will have waves of low pressure traveling along the boundary through
Tuesday evening. On Sunday, the system will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Middle
Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or
greater over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning.Moreover, a second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will also
develop over parts of the Southern Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. An additional threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or
greater will be over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday morning.In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over two
regions, the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.The threat of severe thunderstorms continues on Monday. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Middle
Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy
rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on
Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley from
Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.The threat of showers and severe thunderstorms continues Tuesday over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, on Tuesday, the SPC
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern
Plains. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.The showers and thunderstorms will also produce moderate to heavy rain
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday. Therefore, on
Tuesday, the WPC issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over two
regions, the Central Plains and the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.Elsewhere, upper-level troughing and embedded upper-level energy will
create rain and highest elevation light snow over the Pacific Northwest,
Northern/Central California, Great Basin, and the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains through Tuesday. The greatest areal coverage
of the rain and snow will be during the afternoon into the late evening.In the meantime, dry fuels, low humidity, and gusty wind will create
conditions favorable for a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Sunday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
