Updated at 9:03 p.m. EDT Saturday, May 6, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Sat May 06 2023Valid 00Z Sun May 07 2023 – 00Z Tue May 09 2023
…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains Saturday and the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday……There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio
Valley into the Middle Mississippi Valley……There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
Rockies/Southern Nigh Plains...
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Colorado Basin and Utah Basin Report for conditions as of May 1, 2023. You can access it HERE. It also contains information on other Western Reservoirs. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Low pressure and an associated front over the Central Plains will move
eastward to the Ohio Valley by Monday evening. On Saturday, the system
will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over the Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is
a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail
two-inch or greater over parts of the Southern Plains through Sunday
morning.Moreover, a second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will also
develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. An additional
threat of hail two-inch or greater will be over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning.In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy
rain over parts of the Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys
on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over three regions the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley,
and the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.The threat of severe thunderstorms continues on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Middle
Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning.The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, there is a threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail two-inch or
greater over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley from Sunday into
Monday morning.Also, on Sunday, there is a threat of showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Sunday into
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. There is also a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater and hail two-inch or greater over parts of the Southern
Plains from Sunday into Monday morning.Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy
rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on
Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley from
Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.The threat of showers and severe thunderstorms continues Monday over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC
issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Monday. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to heavy
rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on
Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on
Monday. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.Elsewhere, upper-level troughing and embedded upper-level energy will
create rain and highest elevation light snow over the Pacific Northwest,
Northern/Central California, Great Basin, and the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains through Monday. The greatest area coverage of
the rain and snow will be during the afternoon into the late evening.In the meantime, dry fuels, low humidity and gusty wind will create
conditions favorable for a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the
Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on Saturday and Sunday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
