Updated at 4:37 p.m. EDT Wednesday, May 3, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Wed May 03 2023Valid 00Z Thu May 04 2023 – 00Z Sat May 06 2023
…Damp and cool conditions expected in the Northeast and Northwest
through the end of the work week……Above average temperatures will continue in the northern Intermountain
West and High Plains through Friday……Scattered severe thunderstorms possible in the Southern Plains on
Thursday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Updated Outlook for May, 2023. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Low pressure lingering over the Northeast will continue to produce damp
and cool conditions across the region through the end of the work week.
The low will slowly drift offshore Friday, and high pressure will build
into the region on Saturday. High temperatures will remain about 10-20
degrees below average through Friday, only reaching the 50s and lower 60s.
The region will dry out and temperatures will return to near seasonable
values over the weekend.In the Northwest, unsettled weather is expected to increase across the
region on Thursday as an upper level shortwave trough and surface frontal
system approach from the northwest. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
and high elevation mixed precipitation and snow are forecast through the
end of the week. Rainfall and snowmelt across the Great Basin and Pacific
Northwest may cause isolated flooding issues in nearby streams and rivers.
Below normal temperatures are forecast to spread across much of the West
through the end of the week with highs generally in the 50s and 60s.Further inland, the northern Intermountain West and High Plains will
experience above normal temperatures through Friday. Thursday’s highs will
be in the 70s and lower 80s, and Friday’s highs will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Significant snowmelt is anticipated in these regions this
week, which could lead to localized flooding concerns. Above average
warmth is expected to spread south into the rest of the Central U.S.
Friday into the weekend.In the southern Plains, a stationary front will remain draped across the
area through Thursday, then lift northeast as a warm front Thursday night
through Friday. Warm, moist conditions are in place across the area, which
will be favorable for thunderstorm development each day. Scattered severe
storms will be possible on Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of
Texas, Oklahoma, and Southern Kansas where the Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Severe storms will be
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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