Updated at 6:29 p.m. Tuesday, May 2, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Tue May 02 2023Valid 00Z Wed May 03 2023 – 00Z Fri May 05 2023
…Much below average temperatures expected Wednesday across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic……Moderate to heavy snow in the West Virginia Appalachians will continue
into Wednesday……Much above average temperatures in the Northwest will cause snowmelt
and flooding concerns this week……Scattered severe thunderstorms possible in the Southern Plains
Thursday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Updated Outlook for May, 2023. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A broad area of low pressure churning over the eastern Great Lakes region
has kept the northeastern quarter of the country cool and damp today. High
temperatures were about 15-25 degrees below average for the Great Lakes
region and parts of the northern and central Appalachians. Much below
average temperatures are expected to shift east on Wednesday into the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast where highs are forecast to be in the 40s and
50s. Showers are ongoing across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast and will continue through Wednesday into Thursday. Mixed
precipitation and snow showers will be possible in the higher elevations,
especially in the West Virginia Appalachians where moderate to heavy snow
is expected through Wednesday morning. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect for parts of West Virginia and Garrett
County, Maryland.In contrast to the cool conditions in the east, the Northwestern U.S. is
experiencing much above normal temperatures. High temperatures were in the
70s and 80s today, which is about 15-25 degrees above average. Highs will
remain much above average through Thursday and cause snow in the higher
elevations to melt during the day. Snowmelt could lead to flooding
concerns along rivers and streams in the Intermountain West from the
U.S./Canada border south through Utah and northwestern Colorado. Flood
Watches and Flood Advisories are in effect for areas where flooding is
most likely this week. A frontal system will approach the region from the
northwest Thursday into Friday, which will increase precipitation and
decrease temperatures across the region.In the southern Plains, a stationary front will remain draped across the
area through Thursday then lift northeast as a warm front Thursday night
into Friday. Conditions across the region will be favorable for
thunderstorms each day, and scattered severe storms will be possible on
Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of Texas and Oklahoma where the
Storm Prediction center has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
(level 2/5). Severe storms will be capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes.Elsewhere, conditions are relatively mild. High pressure is forecast to
build over the Mid-South and Southeast through Thursday, which will keep
conditions dry. Most of the Southwest region will remain dry through the
week as well, except for California. A low pressure center is forecast to
slowly drift south along the California coast through the week, causing
showers and thunderstorms in coastal and valley areas and mixed
precipitation in higher elevations.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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