Updated at 4:18 p.m. EDT Monday, May 1, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Mon May 01 2023Valid 00Z Tue May 02 2023 – 00Z Thu May 04 2023
…Heavy snow will persist across Upper Peninsula of Michigan through
early work week……Well-below-average temperatures spread from Great Lakes/Midwest into
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, with snow chances in higher terrain……Cool and unsettled weather spreads into the West Coast, with well above
average temperatures continue across the Intermountain West,
northern/central Rockies, and northern High Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Updated Outlook for May, 2023. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A late-season snowstorm is currently ongoing across portions of the Upper
Great Lakes as a very strong, nearly stationary upper-level low pressure
system churns over the region. In addition to this system causing near
record-low pressures during the month of May, it is also responsible for
bringing a very cool airmass over the region. Surface temperatures under
this area of low pressure range from 10-20F below average, cold enough for
snow to fall over this area. Gusty, northerly flow on the backside of the
strong surface low in conjunction with cold air being pushed southward
will lead to additional snowfall of 4-8″, locally 1+ feet over higher
elevations of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Near-freezing surface
temperatures will result in falling snow being wet and heavy, which may
result in downed trees and power lines. On Tuesday, the snowfall coverage
will diminish as this system begins to weaken and exits toward the east.
Temperatures are expected to gradually warm throughout the week, with
seasonal temperatures expected for the area by late-week.Conditions across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to be drier,
but cooler after the widespread heavy rainfall over the weekend. The
heaviest axis of precipitation will progress northward from far northern
Maine into southern Quebec Monday night, leaving drier conditions in its
wake. However, the low pressure system located over the Great Lakes will
gradually propagate east-southeastward toward the Northeast this week,
bringing its very cool airmass along with it. While temperatures will be
below average to begin the week, it will get even colder. By Wednesday,
surface temperatures will be particularly cool as the upper-level low
slowly moves across Upstate New York. High temperatures will only in peak
in the 40s and 50s over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday, which is 15-20F below average. In addition to the cool
temperatures, the main band of precipitation is expected to wrap around
the south side of the upper-level low on Monday/Tuesday, bringing rain
chances into the Ohio River Valley and into portions of the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. While most of the precipitation will fall as rain,
some areas, particularly at higher elevations, are expected to see
accumulating snow as well. The Central Appalachians are expected to see
the most snow, with snowfall totals ranging from 6-10″, with locally
higher amounts possible.In the West, an unsettled weather pattern is entering the area as an
upper-level low pressure system propagates southward along the West Coast.
Initially, impacts will be confined to areas west of the Sierra Nevada and
portions of western Oregon/Washington. The main impacts will be well-below
average temperatures, scattered showers, and higher-elevation snow. This
system will progress southward along the West Coast during the early-week.
By mid-week, this system will begin propagating eastward into the Desert
Southwest and portions of the southern Rockies, cooling down temperatures
significantly across the region. For portions of the Intermountain West
and central/northern High Plains, well-above average temperatures are
expected this week, with many highs over the area in the 70s and 80s.
Conditions will be mostly dry across this region, minus a chance of
scattered thunderstorms over portions of the northern/central Rockies on
Tuesday. Regions in the Great Basin that are experiencing river flooding
due to rapid snow melt can expect more significant snowmelt this week
given the warm temperatures overspreading the region.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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