Updated at 4:47 p.m. EDT Sunday April 30, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023Valid 00Z Mon May 01 2023 – 00Z Wed May 03 2023
…Heavy rainfall and flooding concerns linger across the Northeast into
early Monday morning……Significant and long-duration heavy snowfall event expected for the
U.P. of Michigan through Tuesday……Cool and unsettled weather spreads into the West Coast, while well
above average temperatures continue across the Intermountain West,
northern/central Rockies, and northern High Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook which I call a Four-Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A deep upper-level trough over the Great Lakes and anomalously strong
surface low pressure system expected to swing from the Mid-Atlantic into
the Northeast tonight are forecast to produce unsettled weather into the
start of May from the Midwest to the East Coast. Heavy rain is likely
tonight for much of the Northeast as the strong low pressure system ushers
in a plentiful amount of atmospheric moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. 1
to 3 inches of rain over saturated ground could lead to scattered
instances of flash, urban, and small stream flooding. The greatest chances
for flooding concerns overnight reside over parts of New Hampshire and
southern Maine, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect. Heavy rain is also possible across eastern Pennsylvania, New
Jersey, the Delmarva Peninsula, and parts of southern New York State into
this evening. As this system pushes into southeast Ontario, Canada on
Monday, breezy, cool, and cloudy conditions are expected throughout the
Northeast into Wednesday. Additional showers are also possible, with the
higher upslope elevations of the central and northern Appalachians
experiencing at least a few inches of snow.Speaking of snow, a significant spring snowfall event has begun across
parts of the Upper Great Lakes and is expected to continue through
Tuesday. Cold northerly winds on the western side of the powerful low
pressure system combined with a deep upper-level low supplying plenty of
cold air aloft will support additional bursts of heavy-wet snow throughout
the central/western U.P. of Michigan and far northern Wisconsin. Over 6
inches of snow has already accumulated through this morning, with a few
more feet of snow possible by Tuesday. Snow load and gusty winds could
lead to broken tree limbs and power outages. Winter Storm Warnings are in
effect.Other weather conditions associated with this powerful Eastern U.S. spring
storm include gusty winds across the Midwest and well below average
temperatures throughout much of the eastern half of the Nation. Wind gusts
as high as 45 mph are possible this afternoon and again on Monday across
the Upper Midwest from Minnesota to western Illinois. Meanwhile, the core
of the below average temperatures on Monday and Tuesday is forecast across
the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Interior Northeast. With numerous
clouds, showers, and breezy conditions in place, high temperatures will
struggle to reach out of the 40s in this region (20+ degrees below the
climatological average for the date).For the western U.S., a cool and unsettled weather pattern is currently
spreading into the West Coast as an upper-level low is forecast to slide
into the region early this week. This will lead to shower and high
elevation snow chances, along with below average temperatures. Further
inland, gusty southerly winds and well above average temperatures are
anticipated for much of the Intermountain West, with warm weather also
spreading into the northern/central Rockies and northern High Plains.
Regions experiencing river flooding due to snow melt across the Great
Basin can expect more significant snowmelt into this week. Additionally,
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will overspread much of the
Rockies by Tuesday as well.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
