Updated at 7;20 p.m. EDT Tuesday April 25, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023Valid 00Z Wed Apr 26 2023 – 00Z Fri Apr 28 2023
…Heavy rain, isolated flash flooding and severe weather possible across
portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley……Heavy wet snow expected to develop over the Colorado Rockies and into
portions of the Front Range tonight……Below average temperatures for large portions of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, while above average temperatures expand across the West……Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions to persist across the
southern Rockies to southern High Plains; Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms for central Florida…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook which I call a Four-Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A low pressure system will spread showers and thunderstorms out across the
Central/Southern Plains today. Severe thunderstorms accompanied by pockets
of heavy rainfall may occur from the Colorado Front Range to the ArkLaTex
tonight. Therefore, slight risks of severe thunderstorms as well as
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding are in effect for much of the
Southern Plains tonight. Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes are possible with any severe storms that develop. Some hourly
totals of 1-1.5″ may be reached across southeast Colorado into southern
Oklahoma leading to scattered instances of flash flooding.Heavy wet snow is likely to continue on the backside of this storm system
over parts of the Colorado Rockies through Wednesday afternoon. Between
1-2′ of snow with isolated higher amounts will have likely accumulated by
the time the snow wraps up, which may cause major to extreme impacts for
many areas. The excessive rainfall and severe weather threats ramp up over
the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday as the low
pressure system drops into Texas and begins interacting with a more
substantial amount of Gulf moisture and instability. The Storm Prediction
Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for portions of eastern Texas
due to the expectation of damaging winds and very large hail. Pockets of
heavy rain, some within severe thunderstorms, are likely to develop along
and around a warm front stretched out across eastern Oklahoma/Texas and
the Lower Mississippi Valley.Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will then shift into the
Southeast on Thursday. Marginal Risks of excessive rainfall and severe
storms are in place. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough moving across
Florida and sea breeze boundaries is expected to produce scattered
thunderstorms, with hail and/or damaging wind gusts possible within
stronger storms.Continued troughing east of the Rockies will generate below average
temperatures over the next few days. High temperatures will be 15-25
degrees below average across portions of southeastern Colorado, Kansas and
Oklahoma, on the backside of the aforementioned Southern Plains storm
system, on Wednesday. This will result in high temperature readings in the
upper 40s to 50s for many parts of the Central/Southern Plains.
Temperatures moderate a bit on Thursday over those areas. An upper ridge
will continue to bring anomalous warmth to the West over the next several
days with high temperatures reaching 15-25 degrees above normal in many
places. Dry and windy conditions from southeastern Arizona to western
Texas led to the issuance of a Critical Fire Weather Risk for tonight.
Elevated risk areas are in effect for southeastern New Mexico and western
Texas on Wednesday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
|
|
|
| 8
– 14 |
|
|
| 3
– 4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
