Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 19, 2023

First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)

Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE

TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)

TOMORROW

NEXT DAY

This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update.   Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.

Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.

Current satellite and RADAR trends denote a symmetric low pressure across
western North Dakota drawing higher moisture north and west across much of
Montana and northern North Dakota with much of it falling as snow through
the remainder of Wednesday. Highest snow amounts are expected across the
Little Belt, Big Snowy and Judith Mountain ranges in central MT, as well
as the far northeast and northwest corners of Montana and North Dakota,
respectively. This low will spin down wobbling slowly across northwest
North Dakota.

Further south and east, there is a growing potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms today (Wednesday) into the overnight period associated with
a cold front and dry line extending from Nebraska/Iowa across Kansas into
the Southern Plains, as the stronger upper-level energy rolls out of the
Rockies into the Plains this afternoon. The favorable elements for very
large hail, strong winds and possible tornadoes will exist and around the
frontal zone. As such the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an
Enhanced Risk of severe weather along the eastern Nebraska/Kansas boarder
into far Southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri with a Slight Risk
surrounding it across much of Iowa as well as extending along the dry line
across central Kansas to the Red River. Some of these thunderstorms
should have higher rain-rates and pose the potential for incidents of
flash flooding, with best potential/coverage near the
Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri/Kansas quad-state region; as highlighted by the
upgrade to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall by the Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) through tomorrow morning. More isolated incidents may extend
into Iowa, southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin where ground conditions are a
bit more saturated given recent snow melt and swollen rivers/streams.

Behind the dryline across the Southern High Plains, strong winds and
dry/hot weather continue to pose a Critical Fire weather risk as forecast
by the SPC, across much of New Mexico and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
and adjacent regions of Colorado and southwest Kansas and western
Oklahoma. Red Flag Warnings are posted for much of this area, any fires
could rapidly spread given this dry high wind environment. As the cold
front pushes through Wednesday evening, winds will be weaker on Thursday;
however, dry grounds and sufficient winds will keep Elevated to Critical
Fire Danger in place across much of New Mexico for Thursday as well.

By Thursday morning into the afternoon, the enhanced moisture and lift
will spread across the Upper Midwest in association with the deepening
surface low. This low will reach the Upper Mississippi Valley and
increase the potential for heavy snowfall across northern North Dakota and
Minnesota, while the modest rainfall over the saturated grounds of
Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and eastern Iowa will remain under the threat
of isolated flash flooding risk as noted by a broad Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall from WPC. As the day progresses, unstable air will
once again lie along/ahead of the cold front that has advanced toward the
Middle Mississippi Valley back into Eastern Oklahoma/central Texas.
Strong thunderstorms will once again develop with high potential of
excessive rain-rates and severe weather potential. Both WPC and SPC have
issued a Slight Risk for much of a similar area along/ahead of the front
from northeast Texas, Arkansas, to the Tri-Rivers area of Southeast MO/far
W Kentucky. Severe winds, hail, isolated tornadoes and scattered
incidents of flash flooding are possible across this region through
Thursday evening into Friday morning. Similarly on Friday into the
evening, similar conditions will shift into the Lower Mississippi Valley
and Upper Texas Coast, with both WPC and SPC having a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather Outlooks posted for day 3.

Elsewhere, very warm conditions will spread across the Ohio Valley &
Mid-Atlantic today through Friday. Dry ground conditions and low relative
humidities have resulted in a Red Flag Warning being posted for all of New
Jersey today. While temperatures further increase on Thursday with mid to
upper 80s across the Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, it will be
accompanied by higher moisture. This will reduce the threat for fires,
but increase the risk for heat related issues, such as heat exhaustion or
dehydration. By Friday, a few daily records are at risk of being broken
as temps remain 15-20 degrees above normal and may even peak up into the
low 90s.

For the Pacific Northwest, a fast moving, strong but weakening low will
track north of Vancouver Island late on Thursday into Friday. This will
bring stronger winds and a good chance of light to moderate rainfall with
some snows along the highest elevations of the Cascade Range of Washington
and Oregon on Friday.

Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)

Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.  An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.

Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.

Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

Precipitation month to date can be found at  https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png

Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)