Updated at 5:31 p.m. Monday, April 17, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023Valid 00Z Tue Apr 18 2023 – 00Z Thu Apr 20 2023
…Late season heavy snow event to diminish Monday night across the Upper
Lakes region……Heavy snows possible across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
Monday night and Tuesday and into portions of the Northern High Plains on
Wednesday……Below average temperatures expected across most areas to the west of
the Rockies, along the northern tier from the Northern Plains, Upper Lakes
to northern New England, while above average temperatures stretch from the
Plains to much of the East Coast……Elevated to Critical Fire weather threat for the Southern High Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated ENSO Outlook with the new Alert Status of El Nino Watch. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The late season snowstorm that has brought heavy snowfall totals of
between 6 and 18 inches to portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan will continue to diminish Monday night as the storm
lifts slowly northeastward into southeastern Canada. While snowfall rates
and totals will be decreasing Monday night, widespread snow showers will
develop downwind of the Great Lakes as cold northwesterly to westerly
winds flow across the Great Lakes, This will support light to moderate
snowfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan,
the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan and across northeast Ohio,
northwest Pennsylvania and far western New York State.Accumulating springs snows are also possible over the next two days as a
cold front pushes inland from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern
Rockies Monday night into Tuesday. Snowfall totals in excess of a foot
likely over the next two days through much of the Washington and Oregon
Cascades and Olympic Range, while totals over 6 inches are possible
through the Northern Sierra and Northern Rockies. This system will then
push eastward into the Northern High Plains on Wednesday where it will
help to deepen a storm system across western South Dakota and western
North Dakota. While precipitation with this low may begin as rain across
much of the Northern Plains, it should change to snow on the western side
of the storm with heavy snows possible across far northeast Montana into
northwestern North Dakota. It addition to the heavy snows, increasing
winds may produce near blizzard or blizzard conditions Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening across far northeast Montana into northwest North
Dakota, resulting in very hazardous travel conditions.In the wake of the above mentioned cold front moving inland from the
Pacific Northwest, temperatures are expected to remain below average over
the next two days across most areas to the west of the Rockies. Below
average temperatures also likely across the Northern Tier from the
Northern Plains, across the Upper Lakes, northern New York State and into
northern New England. In contrast, above average temperatures are
expected across the Central to Southern Plains, east through the Middle to
Lower Mississippi Valley and into much of the East Coast. In addition to
the warm conditions across the Southern Plains, dry weather and gusty
winds will keep the fire weather threat elevated to critical over the next
few days across the Southern High Plains from New Mexico, West Texas, the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, western Kansas and southeastern Colorado.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [This is not updating – I will attempt to fix it very soon]
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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