Updated at 4:20 p.m. EDT Sunday, April 15, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023Valid 00Z Mon Apr 17 2023 – 00Z Wed Apr 19 2023
…Late season winter storm hammers parts of the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes……Cooler weather returning to the Eastern U.S. to begin the work week…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated ENSO Outlook with the new Alert Status of El Nino Watch. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A strong low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes region Sunday
evening will combine with an unseasonably cold airmass over the Upper
Midwest to produce an impactful late season winter storm across western
Wisconsin, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and the Arrowhead of
Minnesota. High snowfall rates on the northwest side of the surface low
within the deformation zone will result in rapidly accumulating snow
across these areas, with the potential of 6 to 12 inches of heavy wet snow
and isolated higher totals possible. Gusty winds can also be expected
here as well, and reducing visibility and producing wind chills into the
teens. Therefore, winter storm warnings are currently in effect through
Monday evening, and a smaller area of blizzard warnings just south of
western Lake Superior, with dangerous travel conditions expected. Lighter
snows are likely over the remainder of Michigan and even across northern
Illinois and Indiana. Conditions are expected to ameliorate going into
Tuesday as the low moves away and mostly sunny skies return.The trailing cold front from this low pressure system will exit the East
Coast by Monday morning for areas south of New England, heralding a return
to more seasonal temperatures to begin the work week after multiple days
of anomalous June-like warmth across the eastern half of the nation.
Showers are likely to continue going into Monday across New England before
the fronts clears this region later in the day. There may be some lake
effect snow downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, but not to the extent of
the snow expected farther west. Drier conditions are expected going into
Tuesday and beyond as surface high pressure settles in.The western U.S. will also have some precipitation to deal with as a few
Pacific disturbances move inland across the northwestern quadrant of the
nation. Heavy snow is expected across the higher terrain of the Cascades
and Olympic Mountains, and extending to the northern mountains of
California, and also for the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. A
well defined cold front crossing the Intermountain West early in the week
is also forecast to generate gusty winds, and fire weather conditions are
likely from eastern New Mexico to northwestern Texas for Monday and
Tuesday. Some strong to severe storms will also be possible across the
western High Plains on Tuesday as a dryline develops and intercepts
increasing moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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