Updated at 4:24 p.m. Saturday, April 15, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023Valid 00Z Sun Apr 16 2023 – 00Z Tue Apr 18 2023
…Showers and thunderstorms move from the Mississippi Valley to the East
Coast Sunday-Monday……Accumulating snowfall forecast for portions of the Upper Midwest
starting Sunday evening……Temperatures drop for the Great Lakes/Northeast Monday after an
anomalously warm week while the Plains sees a warm up……Series of Pacific storm systems brings unsettled weather to the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Rockies…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated ENSO Outlook with the new Alert Status of El Nino Watch. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Saturday evening as a surface wave moves through
the region. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will also push
eastward along a cold front from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast
through the day Sunday and lingering into Monday. A deepening upper-level
low will help to enhance precipitation totals across portions of the Great
Lakes Sunday, leading to a Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall (level
1/4). Melting snow in addition to locally heavy rainfall may lead to a few
isolated instances of flooding. Cold air will push southward over the
Upper Midwest on the backside of the low as moisture continues to flow in
from the southeast. Accumulating snow totals between 4-7 inches, with
locally higher amounts possible, are forecast later Sunday-Monday for
portions of northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan where
Winter Storm Watches are in effect. Gusty winds may lead to areas of
blowing snow. Some locally heavy rainfall is also possible for the urban
corridor of South Florida ahead of the cold front Sunday, with isolated
flash flooding remaining a concern given the recent historic rainfall.Highs will remain well above average Sunday for the Great Lakes/Northeast
with temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and even some low 80s for eastern
portions of the Great Lakes and the Interior Northeast. Highs will soar
into the mid-80s for portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Onshore flow will keep
temperatures cooler and in the 50s and 60s for coastal portions of the
northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. However, in addition to the
precipitation chances, the cold front will bring big changes
temperature-wise Monday. Highs will only get into the 50s, 60s, and low
70s for the Northeast, much closer to average but quite the change after
numerous record highs were set the past few days. Temperatures will be
even more sharply cooler for the Great Lakes, with highs in the 30s and
40s for the Mississippi Valley Sunday spreading across the Great Lakes
Monday. Meanwhile, it will be a chilly start to the day across the Plains
Sunday morning with below freezing temperatures as far south as the Texas
Panhandle, where Freeze Warnings are in effect for sensitive new spring
vegetation. High temperatures will rebound a bit into the 50s for the
Northern Plains, 60s for the Central Plains, and 70s for the Southern
Plains outside of far south Texas. On Monday, however, a ridge will start
to build in overhead as the upper-level low moving towards the Great Lakes
departs, sending temperatures above average and into the 60s for the
Northern High Plains, 70s for the Central Plains, and 80s for the Southern
Plains.Embedded upper-level energy rotating around a closed low over the
Northeast Pacific will bring enhanced Pacific moisture and unsettled
weather to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies the next couple of
days. Lower elevation coastal/valley rain and higher elevation mountain
snow will spread inland over the Pacific Northwest Sunday as an initial
cold front moves inland. Enhanced moisture/precipitation will spread
eastward into the Northern Rockies by late Sunday evening as another front
moves into the Pacific Northwest early Monday, keeping precipitation
chances up across the region. Some moderate snow accumulations are
forecast for higher elevations of the northern Sierra and Rockies, with
locally heavier accumulations possible for the Cascades and northern
Coastal Ranges of California. Cooler, below average temperatures will
spread inland following the series of cold fronts, with highs in the low
50s Sunday for the Pacific Northwest expanding into northern California,
the northern Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies Monday. Highs will be a
bit above average for the rest of the West, with 60s and 70s for the Great
Basin and Central/Southern Rockies and 80s to low 90s for the Desert
Southwest.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
|
|
|
| 8
– 14 |
|
|
| 3
– 4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
