Updated at 4:58 p.m. Friday, April 14, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023Valid 00Z Sat Apr 15 2023 – 00Z Mon Apr 17 2023
…Threat of severe thunderstorms across the central Plains tonight shifts
towards the middle/lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday and Southeast on
Sunday……Developing storm system over the Great Lakes this weekend to
potentially lead to gusty winds and a changeover from rain to snow between
Iowa to the U.P. of Michigan on Sunday……Unsettled weather lingers across the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, while
wet weather returns to the Pacific Northwest…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated ENSO Outlook with the new Alert Status of El Nino Watch. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The main weather story across the Lower 48 over the next few days will be
associated with a progressing cold front pushing from the Great Plains to
the East Coast, along with a developing strong low pressure system over
the Great Lakes by Sunday. The aforementioned cold front currently
stretches from Minnesota to the southern High Plains, with a dry line
extending across central Oklahoma and Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop later this evening and overnight along these boundaries across
portions of the central Plains and southern Texas. Damaging wind gusts and
large hail are the most likely hazards associated with the eventual
storms. By Saturday, the advancing cold front is anticipated to shift
eastward and increase the severe thunderstorm threat throughout the
middle/lower Mississippi Valley as cold air clashes with a warm and moist
airmass in place. Thunderstorms developing between northern Louisiana and
central Missouri will have the potential to produce large to very large
hail, damaging wind gusts, as well as a couple of tornadoes. In order to
further highlight the threat, the Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for central/southern
Missouri, much of Arkansas, and northern Louisiana. Along with the severe
weather threat, isolated instances of flash flooding are possible along
the cold front as it stretches from the Upper Midwest to the central Gulf
Coast. Chances are greater across the central Gulf Coast for several
inches of rainfall and scattered flash floods. As the cold front speeds
into the Southeast on Sunday, additional chances for severe weather are
possible.Along this same frontal boundary, a deepening area of low pressure is
expected to spread hazardous weather into parts of the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes this weekend. A sharp upper-level trough that eventually cuts
off into an upper-level low will be responsible for the strengthening
storm system as it is currently forecast to progress from eastern Iowa
Saturday night towards the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday Initially, areas of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall should overspread much of the region on
Saturday and could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially for
areas vulnerable due to recent snowmelt. As the system strengthens on
Sunday, gusty winds up to 50 mph are possible across the eastern Dakotas
and into parts of the Midwest. Additionally, cold air aloft along with
increasing precipitation on the backside of the low will allow for a
corridor of potentially heavy snow throughout portions of Wisconsin and
the western U.P. of Michigan. Uncertainty remains regarding the exact
snowfall amounts and surface temperatures to allow for accumulation, but a
quick burst of heavy snow is possible in this region Sunday night into
Monday.Elsewhere, a lifting and weak upper-level low entering the Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday is forecast to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over
the area. Most of the shower activity this afternoon stretches from the
eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians to the southern
Mid-Atlantic. This unsettled weather should lift northward to begin the
weekend and offer spotty thunderstorm chances across the Mid-Atlantic.
Much of this region has endured a dry start to spring, so any rainfall
should remain beneficial. Temperatures throughout the eastern U.S. will
also remain well above average through much of the weekend, with highs
into the 70s and 80s reaching as far north as Michigan, New York State,
and Vermont.Unsettled weather is also anticipated to return to the Pacific Northwest
by Saturday as a parade of storm systems take aim at this part of the
country. Much of the precipitation through Monday morning is forecast to
remain confined to eastern Oregon and Washington, including the Cascades,
until spreading further inland across northern Idaho and northwest Montana
Sunday night. Coastal/valley rainfall amounts and mountain snow is
expected to remain light to moderate, with liquid equivalent precipitation
amounts generally under 2 inches for the entire timeframe.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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