Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 13, 2023

Updated at 9:10 p.m. Thursday, April 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 14 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 16 2023

…Anomalous warmth including record-breaking temperatures continue for
the Midwest and Northeast…

…Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall moving up the
East Coast through Saturday…

…Threat of heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, and critical fire
weather for the Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley to end the
week…

…Lingering snow showers continue for the Northern/Central Rockies
through Friday…

Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.

Last night we published the Updated Outlook for the month of April. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways.

First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)

Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE

TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)

TOMORROW

NEXT DAY

This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.

Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.

Significantly above average temperatures are forecast to continue under
the influence of an anomalous upper-level ridge for the Midwest and
Northeast Friday and Saturday. Widespread highs into the 70s and 80s are
forecast for Friday, upwards of 25-35 degrees above average for this time
of year. Numerous potential record-tying/breaking highs are possible from
the Lower Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England,
with temperatures approaching 90 for some locations of the
Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. Highs will be a bit lower on Saturday
as the ridge aloft begins to break down and precipitation chances
increase, but will still be well above average in the 70s. Further south,
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue as a compact
upper-level low and associated surface frontal system move northward from
the Gulf Coast up the East Coast through Saturday. Some locally heavy
rainfall and an isolated instance or two of flash flooding will be
possible for the Piedmont of South and North Carolina Friday, where a
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) is in effect.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the West will move out over the
Plains as lee cyclogenesis helps better organize/strengthen low pressure
and an associated frontal system over the Central/Northern Plains Thursday
evening. A cold front will slowly push eastward through the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest Friday with a sharpening dryline
extending southward through the Central/Southern Plains as moisture
returns northward ahead of the system. These features will help promote
the development of showers and thunderstorms Friday across the
Midwest/Plains. There is a Slight Risk of Severe Weather (level 2/5) from
the Storm Prediction Center for portions of the Central Plains where some
storms may carry the threat of some damaging winds and large hail. Storm
chances will shift into the Mississippi Valley as the cold front/dry line
continue eastward on Saturday. Increasing moisture along with moderate
buoyancy will increase the risk for some locally heavy rainfall over the
Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley along the slow moving front, with a
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect. Severe weather chances also
expand with a Slight Risk of Severe Weather similarly over the
Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley for the continued risk of damaging winds
and large hail. While rain rates and storm total rainfall are expected to
be lower further north over the Upper Mississippi Valley, the combination
of warm temperatures leading to snow melt on top of additional rainfall
could lead to an isolated flood risk. Dry and windy conditions to the west
of the dryline and ahead of the southward moving cold front over the
Southern High Plains on Friday have also prompted a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather from the Storm Prediction Center. Temperatures will fall quite a
bit behind the front after the anomalous warmth earlier this week, with
highs in the 40s for the Northern Plains Friday and highs falling into the
50s and low 60s for the Central Plains Saturday.

Further west, snow showers will continue along a frontal system pushing
southward through the Northern/Central Rockies Friday. Some locally heavy
snow totals will be possible over the Central Rockies in Colorado. The
snow should wind down by later Friday as the upper-level trough pushes
further eastward over the Plains and ridging begins to build over the
West. Some light showers will be possible over the Pacific Northwest but
otherwise the rest of the West will remain dry. High temperatures will
remain be a bit cool Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s forecast for the
Northern Rockies; 50s for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Central
Rockies; and 60s and 70s in California and the Desert Southwest. The
ridging building in aloft will lead to a warm up for many Saturday, with
highs rising into the 60s for the Great Basin, 60s and 70s for California,
and 80s for the Desert Southwest. Highs will remain cool in the 40s and
50s for the Rockies.

Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)

Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.

Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.

Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1)	Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2)	Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov /produ cts/pre dictions/610day/	https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/	https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.

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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.

Month to Date Information

Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png

World Forecast

Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE

This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.

Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)

This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.

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I hope you found this article interesting and useful.

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