Updated at 5;01 p.m. Tuesday, April 11, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023Valid 00Z Wed Apr 12 2023 – 00Z Fri Apr 14 2023
…Widespread showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall to expand
across the Southeast……Unsettled weather continues across the northern tier of the West, with
locally heavy snow for the Northern Rockies……Well above average, early summer-like temperatures continue to expand
across the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated Outlook for the month of April. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Heavy rainfall chances will continue to expand further into the Southeast
the next couple days as an area of low pressure forms along a stationary
front over the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday/early Wednesday. It should be
noted that there still is spread amongst the models with how this system
evolves, although there is a general consensus for areas of heavy rainfall
over the Central Gulf Coast Wednesday spreading into the Southeast
Thursday. Generally, rainfall totals on the order of 1-3″ (locally higher)
could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, with corresponding
Marginal Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) in effect. On the eastern
fringe of this system, persistent easterly onshore flow will also support
continued daily thunderstorms with heavy rainfall over south Florida.
There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for a
locally higher threat for scattered instances of flash flooding persisting
through late Tuesday and into Wednesday.An upper-level trough over the Northwest with a pair of frontal systems at
the surface will lead to continued chances for lower elevation
coastal/valley rain and higher elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest
and Northern Rockies. The focus will be on the Pacific Northwest Wednesday
as moist, onshore flow precedes a Pacific cold front. Light to moderate
rainfall as well as some light accumulating snows at higher elevations of
the Cascades can be expected. As the trough moves eastward, precipitation
chances will increase across the Northern Rockies as a second frontal
system moves through the region and out into the Plains. Locally heavy
snow will be possible at higher elevations of the Northern Rockies
Thursday, with the chance some light accumulations might spread into
portions of the Northern High Plains. Some showers and thunderstorms can
also be expected ahead of this front later Thursday afternoon over
portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest.Meanwhile, outside of the more active weather in the Southeast and
Northwest, well above average, anomalously warm temperatures have settled
in Monday across much of the country as a potent upper-ridge migrates
eastward toward the Central U.S. High temperatures upwards of 30 to 40
degrees above average will continue Tuesday and Wednesday across portions
of the Central Plains through the Upper Midwest as highs reach into the
mid- to upper 80s. Highs will also soar into the upper 70s and 80s in the
Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, spreading into New England on Thursday. Numerous
stations across the Plains, Upper Midwest, and the Northeast could
challenge their daily high temperature records. The warm weather has
sparked fire weather concerns across the Plains, where the Storm
Prediction Center is highlighting an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather
conditions (level 1/3) for Wednesday. The cold front moving into the
Plains will bring temperatures back to normal later this week/weekend,
with temperatures dropping into the 40s starting in the Northern Plains
Thursday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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