Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 06 2023Valid 12Z Thu Apr 06 2023 – 12Z Sat Apr 08 2023
…Severe thunderstorms possible across the Mid-Atlantic today...
…Heavy rain and the potential for scattered flash flooding stretches
from southeast Texas to the western/central Gulf Coast through Friday……Unsettled weather forecast throughout much of the Pacific Northwest…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated Outlook for the month of April. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A sharp cold front traversing the East Coast today and lingering along the
Gulf Coast and Southeast early this weekend will continue to be a focus
for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Very warm and moist air ahead of
this frontal boundary throughout the Mid-Atlantic will offer an
environment conducive for thunderstorms to potentially turn severe this
afternoon. In fact, high temperatures into the 70s and 80s could break a
few daily high temperature records around New York City and Long Island
before cooler temperatures surge eastward this evening. The greatest
chances for severe thunderstorms capable of containing damaging wind gusts
and large hail spans from south-central Virginia to the Delmarva
Peninsula. Here, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms. Intense rainfall rates could also
lead to lowered visibility and the potential for urban flooding depending
on exactly where the storms track. Additionally, thunderstorms are
expected to develop and strengthen near the busy afternoon commute, so be
sure to check conditions prior to venturing out if traveling in this
region.Farther south, heavy rain is likely across parts of southeastern Texas and
along the western/central Gulf Coast over the next few days as a
stationary front lingers across the region within a moisture rich
atmosphere. Chances for flash flooding exist where the most intense
downpours and persistent heavy rain sets up, while also exhibiting a very
slow forward motion. For today, southeast Texas and the western Gulf Coast
is the most likely region to experience pockets of rainfall exceeding 3
inches, which could lead to flooding in low-lying and urban regions. A
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall in effect today includes the
cities of San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi, and Houston, TX, as well as
Shreveport, LA. An outside chance for damaging wind gusts and large hail
is also possible within some of the stronger storms today across
south-central/southeast Texas. The heavy rain threat is then forecast to
slide eastward on Friday along with a surface low developing along the
stationary front. Additional flash flooding is possible across the central
Gulf Coast and Deep South, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
centered over eastern Louisiana and extending into central Mississippi. As
this system continues to swing east on Saturday, one final day of
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected over the Southeast as a strong
high pressure system builds to the north over the Great Lakes. Overall,
the stormy weather pattern across the Southeast and Gulf Coast through
Saturday is forecast to yield widespread areal-average rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches, with higher localized totals.Unsettled weather is also in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest
between today and Friday. A cold front and surge of Pacific moisture
pushing inland from northern California to Washington could produce a few
inches of rainfall until weakening and sliding into the Intermountain West
on Friday night. Warm air associated with the system will allow for very
high snow levels to reach up to 5000 feet and the potential for snowmelt
across lower elevations.Elsewhere, cold and blustery conditions are expected to continue today
across the Upper Great Lakes, along with scattered snow showers. Another
round of potentially localized heavy snow is possible across a narrow
corridor of central Wisconsin and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan on
Friday night just to the north of a strong warm front, but uncertainty
remains high regarding exact location and amounts at this time.The temperature outlook through Saturday across the Nation features a big
cooldown across the East Coast on Friday and Saturday, with widespread
below average temperatures, while much of the western and central U.S. see
a return of above average temperatures reaching into the 60s and 70s by
the weekend.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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