Updated at 4 p.m. EDT Sunday, April 2, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Sun Apr 02 2023Valid 00Z Mon Apr 03 2023 – 00Z Wed Apr 05 2023
…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Sunday evening and over parts of the Plains and
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday...…Heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday…
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated Outlook for the month of April. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
On Sunday, a front over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will
move northward as a warm front. Moisture pooling along the boundary will
produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.West of the warm front, there is a dryline bisecting the Southern Plains
where showers and severe thunderstorms will develop. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Southern
Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, there is an increased threat of
severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater, hail of two-inch or
greater, and EF2-EF5 tornados over parts of the Southern Plains.Meanwhile, weak onshore flow and additional upper-level energy will create
coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California through Monday evening. In addition, the energy will
produce heavy snow over the Cascades through Tuesday morning. Snow also
develops over the Northern Intermountain Region, continuing into Tuesday
evening. On Tuesday, the coastal rain continues over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and Northern California.Additionally, as the low pressure associated with a front moves into the
Upper Midwest on Sunday evening, light snow will develop over parts of the
Upper Midwest into Monday evening. As the storm moves into Michigan, light
rain and snow develop over the Upper Great Lakes from Sunday evening into
Monday morning. Furthermore, rain will develop along the front on Monday
afternoon into Monday evening from parts of the Northeast to the Ohio
Valley, as showers and thunderstorms will return to the Southeast on
Monday.Moreover, the upper-level energy develops a wave of low pressure along a
front over the Great Basin by late Sunday evening. The surface low will
move eastward across the Rockies on Monday and into the Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. The system will
produce snow over the Northern/Central Rockies overnight Sunday into
Monday. The system will produce a major winter storm producing over a foot
of snow from the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains, challenging some
April snow records in the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Localized 24
inches plus totals are possible from southeast Wyoming to central South
Dakota. Avalanches and significant impacts from snow load are possible
across portions of Utah.Additionally, strong wind and heavy snow will create whiteout conditions
Tuesday, causing dangerous to impossible driving conditions and
considerable disruption to daily life. Furthermore, wind chills will fall
to near or below zero during the blizzard in the Northern Plains, which
could be life-threatening to anyone stranded. Moreover, widespread gusts
in excess of 50 MPH will spread from the Southwest and Four Corners on
Monday and into the Plains Tuesday. As a result, power outages, wind
damage, and blowing dust, are likely produced outside of thunderstorm
activity.In the meantime, in the warm sector, as the associated front moves onto
the Plains, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Plains and Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the parts of the
Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Western Ohio
Valley on Tuesday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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