Updated at 6:10 p.m. Thursday, March 16, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023Valid 00Z Fri Mar 17 2023 – 00Z Sun Mar 19 2023
…Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall can be expected
through tonight across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley……Heavy snow is expected over portions of the Upper Midwest and into the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan tonight through the first half of the
weekend……Much of the U.S. will see below to much below normal temperatures going
into the weekend…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the new ENSO Advisory Update which can be accessed here. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Multiple waves of low pressure lifting northeast across the Midwest will
consolidate and deepen tonight through Friday across the Great Lakes
region, with this latest winter storm bringing heavy accumulating snow to
portions of the Upper Midwest and the U.P. of Michigan. On Saturday, the
low center will advance northeast into southeast Canada, but strong winds
and much colder air surging south around the departing low center will
keep a threat of heavy lake-effect snow going across the U.P. of Michigan
where snowfall totals of as much as 1 to 2 feet can be expected. The
exiting low center will drive a strong cold front across the Eastern U.S.
and this coupled with a secondary surge of Arctic air dropping south from
Canada will allow for the transport of much colder air which will bring a
large area of below to much below normal temperatures across the Plains,
Midwest and gradually into much of the East heading into the weekend. Some
portions of the Plains and Midwest will see high temperatures as much as
15 to 25 degrees below normal, with some areas of the Northern Plains
seeing low temperatures by Saturday morning that will be below zero.The arrival of cold air across the central and eastern portions of the
U.S. will be preceded by mild temperatures, and this relatively warm air
coupled with moisture arriving north from the Gulf of Mexico will set the
stage for areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms for this evening and
overnight across portions of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi
Valley. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has depicted an Enhanced Risk
of severe weather for areas of north-central to northeast Texas, much of
southern Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas. Strong winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible across these areas. Heavy rainfall
will also be associated with these stronger storms, and there is at least
a localized flash flood threat that may evolve across the Arklatex region
this evening and overnight given the potential for a few inches of rain.
The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted areas of central to southern
Arkansas, far southeast Oklahoma, eastern Texas and northwest Louisiana in
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall.Drier air and much more tranquil weather will be the story across much of
the West for the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend
with temperatures near to slightly below normal, except for the Pacific
Northwest where temperatures will be slightly above normal. However, a new
storm system will be approaching the West Coast by the latter part of the
weekend, and thus more unsettled weather will soon be on the horizon.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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