Updated at 3:47 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, March 15, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023Valid 00Z Thu Mar 16 2023 – 00Z Sat Mar 18 2023
…Heavy snow to impact the central Rockies tonight into Thursday, while
also spreading across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through Friday……Severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding possible across
parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley Thursday into
Thursday night……Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in effect across the Southeast,
with well below average temperatures shifting to much of the central U.S.
by the end of the week…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the new ENSO Advisory Update which can be accessed here. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The major weather story to span across the continental United States over
the next few days will be mainly associated with a strengthening storm
system to eject into the central Plains early Thursday. This low pressure
system is then forecast to deepen and push northeastward into the Upper
Great Lakes by Friday. To the northwest of this low, a swath of heavy snow
is possible and could lead to dangerous travel at times. Heavy snow is
anticipated to occur throughout the central Rockies tonight, with
accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible over the southern Colorado Rockies.
As the system moves east, a stripe of locally heavy snow may extend from
northeast Nebraska to the U.P. of Michigan between Thursday and Friday.
These regions have the greatest chances for over 4 inches of snowfall.
Combined with gusty winds, snow-covered roads and reduced visibility could
create difficult travel. The heaviest snow is anticipated over northeast
Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and the U.P. of Michigan, where 1 to 2 feet
of snow is expected.On the warm side of this system, moist southerly flow out out of the Gulf
of Mexico will interact with an approaching cold front to spark numerous
showers and thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley between Thursday and Thursday night, with the cold
front shifting the thunderstorm threat to the Southeast and eastern Gulf
Coast on Friday. Thunderstorms may contain large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes from northeast Texas, southern Oklahoma and
into the ArkLaTex region. The Storm Prediction Center has issues an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms to further highlight the
threat in this area. Intense rainfall rates are also possible with the
developing thunderstorms, which could produce scattered instances of flash
flooding around the ArkLaTex.In regards to temperatures, below average and subfreezing low temperatures
across the Southeast on Thursday morning could damage vegetation and any
unprotected outdoor plumbing. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories stretch
from Alabama to northern Florida and much of the Carolinas. After Thursday
morning, a brief warm up is expected ahead of an approaching cold front
forecast to swing through Friday night. The aforementioned cold front is
forecast to usher in temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below average across
much of the central U.S. by the end of the week. Lows into the 20s and 30s
are forecast to sink as far south as central Texas, with widespread highs
throughout the northern Great Plains only reaching the teens.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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