Updated at 9:23 p.m. EDT Tuesday March 14, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023Valid 00Z Wed Mar 15 2023 – 00Z Fri Mar 17 2023
…Heavy rain and the potential for significant flash flooding continues
for parts of central/southern California tonight……Gusty winds and periods of heavy snow lingers across New England
through early Wednesday……Next storm system to enter the central U.S. by Thursday to bring the
threat of heavy snow throughout the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, with the
potential for flash flooding and severe weather across the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the new ENSO Advisory Update which can be accessed here. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A strong Atmospheric River currently impacting California is forecast to
continue producing numerous rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow for
central/southern portions of the state through tonight. Heavy rain
combined with snowmelt below 5000 feet is likely to result in widespread
instances of flooding, especially for areas that are still extremely
vulnerable from recent rainfall. Some significant flooding impacts are
possible. Widespread Flood Watches, Warnings, and Advisories are in
effect, along with a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall across
parts of the southern Sierra Nevada foothills and central/southern
California coast. The storm system is expected to push further inland and
into the Intermountain West tonight, while the attached cold front
completes its trek through southern California early Wednesday and ends
the excessive rainfall threat. Along with heavy rainfall, this potent
storm is expected to produce heavy mountain snow from the Sierra to the
central/northern Rockies through Wednesday, as well as the potential for
gusty winds. As the cold front slides into the Southwest on Wednesday,
locally heavy rain could also lead to isolated flooding over parts of
central Arizona.For the Northeast, an ongoing Nor’easter churning just northeast of Cape
Cod is anticipated to continue producing gusty winds and periods of heavy
snow throughout New England into Wednesday. Although the heaviest snow is
expected to gradually diminish tonight, additional amounts of 6 to 12
inches are possible across parts of Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and
northern Maine. Snowfall totals over 2 feet have been reported across
parts of southern Vermont, Massachusetts, and New York State today, which
has led to scattered power outages and tree damage due to the weight of
the snow. Gusty winds up to 60 mph along the coast and 40 mph inland could
lead to additional power outages and blowing snow could lead to even more
travel difficulties tonight. The low pressure system is forecast to peak
in intensity late this evening near Cape Cod before gradually sliding
eastward into the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.To the south of the strong Nor’easter, cold temperatures have surged into
the Mid-South and Southeast. Low temperatures forecast to dip near or
below freezing on Wednesday morning may lead to damage to vegetation and
unprotected plumbing. Widespread Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories
extend from northern Arkansas to the eastern Carolinas, while also
stretching as far south as southern Alabama and Georgia. These cold
morning temperatures may linger into Thursday across the Southeast, until
a warm up commences by the end of the week.The next major storm system to develop across the central U.S. is
anticipated to organize on Thursday as the system responsible for the
ongoing California Atmospheric River ejects into the Great Plains. The
winter weather impacts associated with the storm are expected to be
confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes (eastern Minnesota, northern
Wisconsin, and the U.P. of Michigan), where widespread snowfall totals
over 4 inches are most likely. Farther south, a warm and humid airmass
surging out of the Gulf of Mexico and interacting with an approaching cold
front may spawn the potential for several showers and thunderstorms from
the southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few of these storms
could turn severe and be capable of producing large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of eastern Texas
into the ArkLaTex region. Thunderstorms may also contain intense rainfall
rates and lead to scattered flash flooding, particularly over the ArkLaTex
and nearby surrounding areas.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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