Updated at 4:14 p.m. Monday March 13, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023Valid 00Z Tue Mar 14 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 16 2023
…Major Winter Storms to impact both the Northeast and California over
the next few days……Widespread Heavy snows likely from northeast Pennsylvania, far
northwest New Jersey, across much of New York State and much of New
England……Another Atmospheric River event taking aim at much California,
producing additional major flooding and high elevation heavy snows……A hard freeze possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning from the Tennessee
Valley into portions of the South and Southeast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the new ENSO Advisory Update which can be accessed here. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A very stormy period on tap for both the Northeast and California over the
next two days, with major winter storms affecting both areas. Surface low
pressure just off the North Carolina coast Monday afternoon will be
intensifying tonight into early Tuesday as it pushes toward southeast New
England. Heavy snows will be developing tonight to the north and
northwest of this storm, with widespread heavy snow totals in the 6 to 18
inch range likely from northeast Pennsylvania/far northwest New Jersey,
through much of NY State and much of New England, with isolated totals in
excess of 2 feet possible. In addition to the heavy snows, winds will
be increasing in response to the rapidly strengthening low, with gusts in
excess of 50 mph likely. The combination of high winds and snowfall rates
of as high as 2 to 3 inches per hour will make for dangerous to impossible
travel conditions during the day on Tuesday. These high winds will also
produce widespread minor beach erosion and flooding from along the New
England and southern NY State coastal region. By Wednesday the storm is
expected to begin to inch away from the New England coast, with some
improvement likely for the recovery and dig out.At the same time as the winter storm deepens of the Northeast coast,
another Atmospheric River event will be affecting much of California.
Additional heavy precipitation will be moving back into much of California
Monday night and continuing through all of Tuesday before beginning to
taper off during Wednesday. This next heavy precipitation event will be
affecting the same regions that were impacted by the very heavy rains last
week. With the ground already saturated from the previous storm and river
levels well above average, another round of major and life-threatening
flooding is likely along much of the California coast, central Valley and
foothills of the Sierra. Similar to the previous storm, snow melt below
the 5000 foot level in the Sierra will exacerbate the flooding potential.
Additional very heavy snows also likely with this next storm, with
accumulations of 3 to 5 feet likely above 7500 feet in the Sierra Range.In the wake of the strong Northeast winter storm, cold temperatures will
spread across the southeast quarter of the nation. This will produce the
likelihood of widespread freezes both Tuesday and Wednesday morning from
the Tennessee Valley into portion of the South and Southeast. Freeze
warnings are currently in effect across these regions where recent above
average temperatures have accelerated the spring growth cycle.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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