Updated at 4 p.m. EDT, March 12, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023Valid 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023 – 00Z Wed Mar 15 2023
…A potent storm system is expected to bring a moderate risk of flash
flooding and heavy mountain snow over parts of California……A wavy front is forecast to bring some severe thunderstorms across the
Southeast through tonight before intensifying rapidly into a potent
nor’easter off the New England coast on Tuesday with heavy wet snow inland
and high winds with rain/snow near the coast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the new ENSO Advisory Update which can be accessed here. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Increasingly stormy weather is expected to impact both the West and the
East Coasts simultaneously over the next couple of days with the arrival
of two separate but potent low pressure systems. The widespread
precipitation currently associated with a frontal system across the
Pacific Northwest will gradually shift its focus southward into California
over the next couple of days as a rather dynamic low pressure system is
forecast to slam onshore in California on Tuesday. Despite uncertainty on
the timing of this system, the dynamics and ample moisture associated with
this system is forecast to bring yet another heavy precipitation event
through the next few days. Additional feet of heavy snow is again
forecast for the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Meanwhile,
considerable flooding impacts are expected below 5000-foot elevation along
the central California coast, San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Valley, and
southern Sierra Nevada foothills into Tuesday. In addition, heavy rain
and snowmelt may lead to renewed (more widespread) flooding from Monday to
Tuesday, particularly in low elevations and shallow and warming snowpack
areas. Creeks and streams will continue to be vulnerable to flooding from
additional rain and snowmelt. Some heavy snow can also be expected
farther inland across the Intermountain West, especially central Idaho and
western Wyoming.Meanwhile, a clipper system currently moving east through the lower Great
Lakes will spread light to moderate snowfall across the Great Lakes
through tonight before reaching interior New England on Monday. Farther
south, a wavy front is forecast to bring some severe thunderstorms across
the Southeast through tonight. This wave is forecast to interact with the
clipper system moving across the Great Lakes and intensify rapidly into a
potent nor’easter off the New England coast on Tuesday bringing heavy wet
snow inland and high winds with rain/snow near the coast. Heavy snow
rates (up to 2 inches per hour possible) and strong winds from this
nor�easter will likely produce dangerous to near impossible travel. The
heavy-wet nature of the snow could result in scattered to widespread power
outages and tree damage. Confidence is increasing that some interior,
higher elevation areas across the interior Northeast will receive greater
than 12 inches of snow. In addition, the system may produce localized
higher snowfall amounts for portions of the Catskills in New York,
Berkshires in western Massachusetts, and southern Green Mountains in
Vermont. Widespread minor coastal flooding may be possible Monday Night
through Wednesday as the low pressure deepens off the coast of New
England. As the precipitation moves into the Central Appalachians, pockets
of rain/freezing rain will develop on Sunday. The combination of snow and
ice may cause hazardous road conditions over parts of the Central
Appalachians.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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