Updated at 3:18 p.m. Saturday, March 11, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023Valid 00Z Sun Mar 12 2023 – 00Z Tue Mar 14 2023
…Heavy snow and difficult travel conditions over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest tonight……Severe weather possible in the Ozarks tonight and into the Southeast on
Sunday……Additional rain and mountain snow for the West Coast into Monday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the new ENSO Advisory Update which can be accessed here. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Low pressure moving through North Dakota this afternoon into the evening
will steadily move eastward through the Upper Midwest early Sunday. Snow
will be heavy at times with gusty winds this evening creating blizzard
conditions over parts of the region, even after the snow has stopped
falling. Travel will be difficult due to reduced visibility and
snow-covered roads. Snow will spread through the western Great Lakes
overnight and across Michigan Sunday. The heaviest snow is expected over
much of Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Light snow is forecast for
areas to the southeast (Lower Michigan, the Midwest, and into the
Appalachians) as the system weakens into Monday.To the south, another area of low pressure over eastern Oklahoma will move
eastward this evening as a warm front lifts through the Ozarks. Moisture
will increase across the region from the south and southeast, promoting an
expanding area of rainfall across the mid and lower Mississippi Valley.
Increased instability over the region will favor thunderstorms this
evening into the overnight hours, where the Storm Prediction Center has
placed the area under a Slight Risk for severe weather, including the
possibility of large hail. Coincident with this area, heavy rain may lead
to flash flooding in some areas. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is
also in effect over the area into the Mid-South. This system will move
east on Sunday, with a renewed threat of heavy rain and flash flooding as
well as severe weather. The cold front will bring in cooler and drier air
to the South on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-20
degrees cooler behind the front from Texas eastward to the Florida
panhandle.In the West, onshore flow and a weak area of low pressure well offshore
will maintain an unsettled pattern for central and especially Northern
California northward into the Pacific Northwest. A warm front extending to
the CA coast will focus showers and heavier steady rain into the Coastal
Ranges and northern/central Sierra where significant snow is expected
above 6000-7000ft. Rainfall and snowmelt may exacerbate flooding in the
area. On Sunday into early Monday, as the weak system offshore lifts
northeastward, the rainfall will focus farther to the north over northern
California into coastal Oregon/Washington. A cold front will finally move
ashore early Monday in the Pacific Northwest, spreading additional lower
elevation rain and mountain snow across the Great Basin. Temperatures will
be near to below normal for much of the Lower 48 Sunday into Monday,
except for much of Florida and parts of the Southwest.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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