Updated at 4:03 p.m. Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EST Tue Mar 07 2023Valid 00Z Wed Mar 08 2023 – 00Z Fri Mar 10 2023
…Multiple day heavy rain and flash flood threat will develop across the
Central Plains and Middle-Mississippi Valley……Unsettled conditions across parts of the West will continue through
mid-week with coastal rain and locally heavy snow in California……A couple rounds of moderate to locally heavy snowfall accumulations
likely for portions of the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest through
mid-week…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A multi-day heavy rain and flash flood threat is expected to develop over
portions of the Southern Plains on Tuesday night and expand further
eastward into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday. A
quasi-stationary surface boundary sits beneath southwesterly flow aloft as
moisture increases from both the Gulf of Mexico as well as a stream
sourced from the Pacific. These sources will combine to trigger the
development of multiple rounds of nighttime thunderstorms beginning
Tuesday night over Oklahoma. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect on Tuesday as anomalously high moisture content will
contribute to rain rates of 1″+ per hour. In addition, the tendency for
storms to back-build over the same regions given generally unidirectional
southwesterly flow aloft will lead to the risk of locally heavy rainfall
totals of 2-4″, with the potential for scattered instances of flash
flooding. Another round of storms is expected to develop late Wednesday
night in the same general vicinity over Oklahoma and Arkansas, leading to
concern for more numerous instances of flooding given the high antecedent
soil moisture and therefore the issuance of a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday. The expectation is that more of these
storms will progress further downstream into the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, further
expanding the flash flood threat eastward. There will be quite a stark
contrast in temperatures north and south of this stationary boundary, with
highs generally in the 80s to the south over Texas and the Lower
Mississippi Valley, with even some low to mid-90s possible along the Rio
Grande. On the other hand, highs will be in the 40s and 50s to the north
over portions of the Central/Southern High Plains, Central Plains, and
Middle-Mississippi Valley.On a broader scale, conditions across the West and Plains will be a bit
more unsettled and cooler than the East as this winter’s dominant pattern
of upper-level troughing over the West with downstream ridging to the east
continues. A persistent series of lows off the northwest Pacific coast and
upper-level energy rotating around the trough in place will help to
encourage nearly continuous lower elevation valley/coastal rain and higher
elevation mountain snow chances for the Pacific Northwest and northern
California. Heavy snow is forecast for the northern coastal ranges and
Sierra in California Tuesday, where higher elevations may see snowfall
totals of several feet. Some thunderstorms will be possible along the
coast, and some light snow may mix in for valley locations, especially
Wednesday night along the I-5 urban corridor of the Northwest. Additional
snow showers are possible for the Northern/Central Rockies Wednesday as a
lingering surface boundary remains draped across the region and the
upper-level energy passes through. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday
will be unseasonably cool over most of the West. High temperatures will be
in the 20s and 30s for the Northern/Central Rockies and Great Basin, 40s
for the Pacific Northwest, and 50s for much of California. Some locations
over California and the Great Basin may meet or exceed record low maximum
temperatures on Wednesday. Portions of the Southwest and Southern Rockies
will be the one warm spot for the West, with highs forecast to be above
average in the 60s and 70s.A couple waves of energy rotating around the western trough will also lead
to rounds of moderate to locally heavy snow across portions of the
Northern and Central Plains. The first round is currently impacting
portions of the northern Plains, where several inches of snow has already
fallen. Another, more intense round of snow will begin Wednesday afternoon
and continue into Thursday for portions of the Northern and Central Plains
as a more significant shortwave moves out from the Intermountain West.
Rain showers and a wintry mix will be possible further south into the
Central Plains. This system will move into the Upper Midwest by Thursday
evening, with significant snowfall totals possible through Thursday
evening. Further east, some light snow showers will be possible for the
Interior Northeast, but otherwise conditions will be mostly dry for the
Midwest and East Coast. High temperatures will generally be seasonable for
New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic, with temperatures maximizing
30s and 40s over much of the region. Highs will be closer to early Spring
for the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Tuesday with 60s and 70s
forecast, and more late-Spring like closer to the Gulf Coast and Florida
with low to mid-80s forecast. Some highs across the Southeast may be close
to breaking the daily record. A cold frontal passage will cool most
locations back to more seasonable conditions Wednesday except along the
immediate Gulf coast and into southern Florida, where temperatures in the
80s will persist.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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