Updated at 3:05 p.m. Monday, March 6, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Mar 06 2023Valid 00Z Tue Mar 07 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 09 2023
…Fast moving storm to bring a narrow stripe of light to moderate snow to
western New York, northern Pennsylvania into northwestern New Jersey late
evening into tonight……Multiple day heavy rain and flash flood threat to begin Tuesday night
from northern Texas into Oklahoma, extending eastward into the Mississippi
Valley……Unsettled conditions across parts of the West will continue through
mid-week with rain and locally heavy snow……Light to moderate snowfall accumulations likely for the Northern Plains
through Wednesday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the new NOAA March Update Click HERE . Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A pair of low pressure centers will track east-southeastward from the
Midwest this evening to the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Precipitation
will primarily be north of the attendant frontal boundary and may start
off as a rain/snow mix but should changeover to all snow for locations
from western New York into northwestern New Jersey where accumulations of
2 to 6 inches are expected (highest for areas of higher elevation). Areas
of light rain are expected to the south.As low pressure tracks into the Atlantic, the cold front will settle into
the southern U.S. and become slow miving, separating temperature
departures of 5-15 degrees above average to the south of the front and
about 5-15 degrees below average to the north of the front across the
Great Plains. Upper level troughing over the western U.S. will slowly edge
east during the week, helping to support the return of low level moisture
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Southern Plains.
Starting Tuesday night, areas of heavy rain are expected to develop across
eastern Oklahoma into northern Texas, with the precipitation shifting east
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Given this area has experienced above
average precipitation over recent days/weeks, the potential for flooding
and flash flooding will be increased.Out West, mean upper level troughing aloft will remain from the eastern
Pacific into the Intermountain West. A number of disturbances dropping
south offshore of the West Coast and then eastward to the Rockies will be
responsible for periods of rain and snow, with locally heavy snow from the
mountains of southwestern Oregon into northern California with 1 to 2 feet
in the forecast through Wednesday evening.Snow will also spread into Nebraska and the Northern Plains on Tuesday
into Wednesday. Accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected from western
South Dakota into much of North Dakota through Wednesday evening, with
areas of snow expanding southward into Nebraska for Wednesday night.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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