Updated at 1:51 p.m. February 25, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2023Valid 00Z Sun Feb 26 2023 – 00Z Tue Feb 28 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California……Heavy snow over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada Mountains…
…Snow and rain/freezing rain over parts of the Upper Midwest…
…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Sunday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the new NOAA Four-Season Outlook Click HERE . Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A storm over the Great Basin will move eastward to the Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians by Monday evening. The system will create heavy rain/embedded
thunderstorms over Southern California, ending overnight Saturday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of Southern California through Sunday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars the most vulnerable. In
addition, the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains will have
moderate to heavy snow through Sunday morning. There will be a slight
pause in the snow on Sunday morning. The threat of excessive rainfall ends
by Sunday. The snow will result in reduced visibility and hazardous
driving conditions. On Sunday, the snow and lower elevation rain will move
into the Southwest and then move into the Central/Southern Rockies by
Sunday evening before ending late Sunday night.Meanwhile, onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest will produce rain and
higher elevation snow over parts of the Northwest overnight Saturday. A
front associated with the moisture will move inland over the Northwest,
moving to the Great Lakes by Monday evening. As the front moves inland,
snow will move over the Northern Intermountain Region and into Northern
California on Sunday morning. By late Sunday morning, rain returns to
Central/Southern California as the snow moves into the Northern Rockies.
Heavy snow will also return to the Sierra Nevada Mountains continuing into
Monday evening.Moreover, upper-level energy will produce snow over parts of the
Northeast, ending by Sunday morning. Furthermore, moisture extending from
the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic will aid in creating light rain
over the region through late Saturday evening.As the Storm over the Great Basin moves out of the Rockies on Sunday
afternoon, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Southern Plains from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is
an increased risk of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater
over parts of Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri.Overnight Sunday, the rain moves northward into Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes; areas of rain/freezing rain will develop over
the region, with the rain/freezing rain moving into parts of the Lower
Great Lakes by Monday afternoon. Also, on Monday, the rain will change
over to snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes,
and snow developing over parts of the Northeast as rain moves into the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. In the meantime, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley on Monday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Ohio Valley on Monday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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