Updated at 3:20 p.m. EST Monday, February 20, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2023Valid 00Z Tue Feb 21 2023 – 00Z Thu Feb 23 2023
…A major winter storm will spread a large swath of heavy snow from the
West Coast to the Northeast through Thursday……Clipper system to bring light to moderate snow to the Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes and interior Northeast……Widespread record breaking cold in the West and record breaking warmth
in the East are possible on Wednesday and Thursday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the new NOAA Four-Season Outlook Click HERE . Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A shortwave trough will rapidly amplify while it digs into the West over
the next couple of days. This strong upper-level energy will bring with it
a substantial supply of Pacific moisture. An arctic draped front will
develop over top of the surface wave and shift southward beneath the
developing upper low, providing the anomalously cold air needed for a
major winter storm to unfold over the northern tier of the country this
week. A southern stream trough in the Southwest will enhance the pressure
gradient over the West and Midwest leading to strong winds in those areas.
While subtle shifts in the storm track remain possible, confidence is high
that this winter storms will be extremely disruptive to travel, livestock,
and recreation in affected areas.Heavy snow and strong winds will develop over the Northern Rockies tonight
and spread southward across the Central/Southern Rockies on Tuesday and
Wednesday while the upper trough digs into the West. The surface low
pressure system will move into the Plains on Tuesday night and will spread
heavy snow, strong winds freezing rain across the Northern Rockies, Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and interior Northeast on Wednesday. Winds gusting in
excess of 30mph may cause blizzard conditions over portions of the West
and Midwest on Wednesday with power outages and tree damage possible. Snow
totals between 2-4 feet with locally higher amounts are possible in the
Western mountains, while 4-8 inches of snow is possible from the
Northern/Central Plains to the interior Northeast by Wednesday evening.
Snow and ice are expected to ramp up over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes
and Northeast Wednesday night into Thursday when the bulk of the snow ice
are expected to accumulate leading to treacherous travel conditions.Very cold temperatures are likely from the West Coast into the Northern
Plains behind this system with record lows and dangerous wind chills
possible. The potential also exists for flash freeze in portions of the
Northern Rockies. Very warm temperatures are likely to expand across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and Thursday prior to the arrival
of southern stream energy. Temperature records are expected to be tied or
broken in the East and West as a result of this highly amplified pattern.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
