The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology
From the JAMSTEC Discussion:
“The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will gradually decay and an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude. In particular, the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.”
Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.
First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on February 16.
| This shows their forecast of sea surface temperatures at three points in time. Notice the water along the Equator in the Pacific. Blue is cool (as an anomaly) and is associated with La Nina. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino. In the first time period it looks like ENSO Neutral with an El Nino bias and the next two periods look like El Nino but not terribly strong and not very westerly displaced (Modoki). But it is red all over for the oceans. |
Then we look at three seasonal forecasts. JAMSTEC works with meteorological seasons and this month it lines up perfectly as next month is the first month of Spring.
The top map is the temperature forecast for March/April/May (MAM) 2023 which is meteorological Spring. The bottom map is the corresponding precipitation forecast. And here is the interpretation from JAMSTEC:
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This covers June/July/August (JJA 2023) which is meteorological Summer. Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown below:
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| And above, September/October/November (SON) 2023 which is meteorological Fall. JAMSTEC does not provide its interpretation of its third season but one can observe it on the maps. |
Now I am going to provide their single-month forecasts for March, April, and May.
| The above is the single month of March 2023 |
| The above is the single month of April 2023 |
| The above is the single month of May 2023 |
Now we look at the key indices used by JAMSTEC in making their forecast. Perhaps I should have presented these first.
| It seems to go Neutral in February which is slightly earlier than NOAA and many other Meteorological Agencies. And it goes above +0.5C in May which means El Nino at least from the perspective of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. The JAMSTEC discussion refers to this El Nino as mild. I am not sure that I see a Nino 3.4 value of +1.3C as being mild. But they see the blue line as being more likely and it is barely an El Nino. The range of forecasts among their various modes corresponds to uncertainty which they address in their discussion. |
| The IOD is returning to at least close to normal so we will not discuss it further. |
And here is the short JAMSTEC Discussion
ENSO forecast:
Observation shows that the La Niña-like state starts to decay. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the La Niña-like state will gradually decay and an El Niño will occur in May. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predictions of the amplitude. In particular, the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a relatively weak El Niño.
Indian Ocean forecast:
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is predicted by the SINTEX-F ensemble mean forboreal summer. However, there is a large uncertainty and the ensemble mean of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR version predicts a normal-state.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal spring (austral autumn), except for Alaska, western Canada, some parts of Brazil, and India. In boreal summer (austral winter), the model also predicts that almost all of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition.
As regards the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal spring (austral autumn), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the southern part of the U.S., Mexico, the northern part of the South American Continent, La Plata, Chile, Australia, Mozambique, West Africa, regions around the Black Sea, Indonesia, Indochina, and some parts of China. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of Canada, the middle part of the South American Continent, the eastern part of South Africa, central Africa, northern Madagascar, Mauritius, some parts of Europe, some parts of Russia, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, some parts of China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Philippines will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal summer (austral winter), a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the North American Continent, La Plata, some parts of Indochina, central India, northern Europe, northern Russia, some parts of China, the Korean Peninsula, and the Philippines. In contrast, the southern parts of the U.S.A., Mexico, the northern part of the South American Continent, Australia, New Zealand, northern India, Nepal, Bhutan, central Africa, most parts of Europe, some parts of Russia, the northern part of China, and Indonesia will experience a drier-than-normal condition.
The model predicts that most of Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal spring. The model also predicts that the central part of Japan (Kyushu, Okinawa, and Hokkaido) will experience slightly wetter (drier) than normal conditions in spring. In summer, the model predicts that most of Japan (except for Hokkaido) will experience a slightly warmer-than-normal summer. The model also predicts most of Japan will experience a wetter-than-normal summer as the seasonally average.
