Updated at 4:35 p.m. EST Wednesday February 16, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023Valid 00Z Fri Feb 17 2023 – 00Z Sun Feb 19 2023
…A stripe of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to stretch from the Great
Lakes to northern New England into Friday……Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible through tonight from
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys to the central Gulf Coast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the Updated ENSO Outlook, Click HERE There are two very interesting articles on ENSO in that article that you can click on. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The main weather story through the beginning of this weekend will be
associated with a storm system and attached cold front forecast to
complete its trek through the eastern U.S. by late Friday. On the cold
side of this system, moderate to locally heavy snow is exiting the Midwest
this afternoon and is anticipated to spread into more of the Great Lakes
tonight. By early Friday, this burst of snow will likely enter the
northern half of Maine, where maximum snowfall totals could add up a foot.
Meanwhile, a stripe of sleet and freezing rain is also possible just to
the south, extending from northern Indiana and southern Michigan to parts
of the Lower Great Lakes and northern New England.For much of the Southeast and areas ahead of the approaching cold front,
it will feel more like April rather than February this evening, with the
potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding into early Friday. A
strong cold front interacting with an anomalously warm and moist airmass
in the East will continue to spark numerous showers and thunderstorms
tonight. SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee and much of Alabama and Mississippi.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes are all potential hazards
associated with theses thunderstorms. Also, the threat of heavy rain could
lead to addition flash flood concerns as storms move relatively slowly
this evening through the eastern Ohio/Tennessee Valley and nearby southern
Appalachians. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in
effect through Friday morning across this region. The showers and
thunderstorms should consolidate into a more linear segment along the cold
front by Friday, while also picking up speed and exiting the East Coast by
Friday afternoon. This should limit the risk of any additional severe
weather for flash flooding concerns to end the week. This cold front will
also usher in much colder temperatures compared to current readings,
closer to the climatological averages for mid-February.Elsewhere, high pressure building into much of the central U.S. and
extending toward the Southeast by the weekend will allow for mostly
tranquil conditions throughout the Nation. In fact, the only other
meaningful precipitation to speak of is forecast to be found across the
northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, where several inches of fresh
snowfall are possible across the higher terrain.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
|
|
|
| 8
– 14 |
|
|
| 3
– 4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
