Updated at 3:29 p.m. Tuesday, February 14, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023Valid 00Z Wed Feb 15 2023 – 00Z Fri Feb 17 2023
…Strong low pressure is expected to bring heavy snow and possibly
blizzard conditions for portions of the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley tonight into Wednesday……A new area of low pressure pivoting across the Southwest will bring
much colder temperatures and heavy snow to the Four Corners region through
Wednesday……Low pressure ejecting from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley will
bring snow from the central High Plains to portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday……Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact
areas from the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley through the Mid-South
and Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the Updated ENSO Outlook, Click HERE There are two very interesting articles on ENSO in that article that you can click on. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Strong low pressure will be lifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes
region tonight through midday on Wednesday and will bring areas of heavy
snow and strong winds to portions of the northern Plains and the upper
Mississippi Valley. Blizzard conditions will be possible locally, and
especially for areas of the Red River Valley of the North. This system
will quickly exit off into southeast Canada by Wednesday night as a
trailing cold front settling southeastward eventually stalls from the
southern High Plains up across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
region.Meanwhile, a vigorous storm system crossing the Southwest tonight will
pivot east toward the southern High Plains on Wednesday and initially
bring areas of heavy snowfall to the higher terrain of the Four Corners
region. In fact, the San Juan mountains of southwest Colorado are expected
to see as much as 1 to 2 feet of new snowfall with locally heavier amounts
possible. Low pressure associated with this storm system though as it
moves east across the southern Plains and toward the lower Ohio Valley by
early Thursday will merge with the aforementioned frontal zone draped over
the region to set the stage for a swath of accumulating snow from the
central High Plains northeast across portions of the Midwest and the Great
Lakes region. As much as 4 to 8 inches of snow can be expected, with even
heavier amounts back toward the eastern slopes of the central Rockies,
including the Front Range, and adjacent areas of the High Plains. Much
colder air pouring south with this storm system will advance across the
Southwest to the central and southern High Plains with temperatures
dropping to as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal.Farther south on the warm side of this system, areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will develop and impact the Arklatex, lower Mississippi
Valley, Mid-South and Ohio Valley by especially Wednesday night and
Thursday. Areas of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, and the
Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of severe weather for
much of this region ahead of the deepening low center and attendant cold
front. Strong winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible with
the stronger storms. Heavy rainfall may also foster at least a localized
threat of flash flooding. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has
depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Mid-South
on Thursday.Very warm air for this time of the year will be also surging well to the
north across much of the eastern U.S. ahead of this latest series of storm
systems, and some temperatures are expected to reach as high as 30 degrees
above normal across the East on Wednesday. Some record high temperatures
are likely, and especially across the Ohio Valley.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
